OpenAI’s rapid iteration within the GPT-5 series continues to shape trader views on a new frontier model release. The company delivered GPT-5.4 and its Thinking variant in early March 2026, followed by a GPT-5.5 Instant update on May 28 that refined response quality, alongside ongoing Codex agentic improvements. This pace reflects intense competition from Google’s Gemini 3.1, Anthropic’s Claude 4.6 models, and xAI’s Grok releases, plus Microsoft’s recent in-house models aimed at reducing OpenAI dependence. Pre-training on next-generation systems reportedly wrapped in March, with Q2 2026 cited in credible timelines, though safety evaluations and capability thresholds remain key variables. Traders watch for official announcements around developer events or earnings for signals on whether a true successor arrives by mid-year or later.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$23,918 交易量
2026-06-30
June 30
86%
September 30
97%
$23,918 交易量
June 30
$7,438 交易量
86%
September 30
$11,102 交易量
97%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration within the GPT-5 series continues to shape trader views on a new frontier model release. The company delivered GPT-5.4 and its Thinking variant in early March 2026, followed by a GPT-5.5 Instant update on May 28 that refined response quality, alongside ongoing Codex agentic improvements. This pace reflects intense competition from Google’s Gemini 3.1, Anthropic’s Claude 4.6 models, and xAI’s Grok releases, plus Microsoft’s recent in-house models aimed at reducing OpenAI dependence. Pre-training on next-generation systems reportedly wrapped in March, with Q2 2026 cited in credible timelines, though safety evaluations and capability thresholds remain key variables. Traders watch for official announcements around developer events or earnings for signals on whether a true successor arrives by mid-year or later.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
交易量
$23,918結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration within the GPT-5 series continues to shape trader views on a new frontier model release. The company delivered GPT-5.4 and its Thinking variant in early March 2026, followed by a GPT-5.5 Instant update on May 28 that refined response quality, alongside ongoing Codex agentic improvements. This pace reflects intense competition from Google’s Gemini 3.1, Anthropic’s Claude 4.6 models, and xAI’s Grok releases, plus Microsoft’s recent in-house models aimed at reducing OpenAI dependence. Pre-training on next-generation systems reportedly wrapped in March, with Q2 2026 cited in credible timelines, though safety evaluations and capability thresholds remain key variables. Traders watch for official announcements around developer events or earnings for signals on whether a true successor arrives by mid-year or later.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$23,918結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s rapid iteration within the GPT-5 series continues to shape trader views on a new frontier model release. The company delivered GPT-5.4 and its Thinking variant in early March 2026, followed by a GPT-5.5 Instant update on May 28 that refined response quality, alongside ongoing Codex agentic improvements. This pace reflects intense competition from Google’s Gemini 3.1, Anthropic’s Claude 4.6 models, and xAI’s Grok releases, plus Microsoft’s recent in-house models aimed at reducing OpenAI dependence. Pre-training on next-generation systems reportedly wrapped in March, with Q2 2026 cited in credible timelines, though safety evaluations and capability thresholds remain key variables. Traders watch for official announcements around developer events or earnings for signals on whether a true successor arrives by mid-year or later.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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