Nigel Farage's decisive victory in the August 2026 Clacton by-election has locked in trader consensus at near-certainty for an increased vote share. He secured 63.3% of the vote—up 17 points from his 46.2% in the 2024 general election—against a field dominated by novelty candidates after major parties boycotted the contest he triggered via resignation. Pre-election constituency polling from Survation showed him on track for roughly 73%, reflecting strong retention among Reform UK supporters in the constituency. With results now confirmed and turnout at 44%, only procedural steps such as an official declaration or any unforeseen recount could still alter the final tally for market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
>99% 機率
$31,748 交易量
$31,748 交易量
2026-08-13
是
>99% 機率
$31,748 交易量
$31,748 交易量
2026-08-13
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage's decisive victory in the August 2026 Clacton by-election has locked in trader consensus at near-certainty for an increased vote share. He secured 63.3% of the vote—up 17 points from his 46.2% in the 2024 general election—against a field dominated by novelty candidates after major parties boycotted the contest he triggered via resignation. Pre-election constituency polling from Survation showed him on track for roughly 73%, reflecting strong retention among Reform UK supporters in the constituency. With results now confirmed and turnout at 44%, only procedural steps such as an official declaration or any unforeseen recount could still alter the final tally for market resolution.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
市場開放時間： Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
交易量
$31,748結束日期
2026-08-13市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ET已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage's decisive victory in the August 2026 Clacton by-election has locked in trader consensus at near-certainty for an increased vote share. He secured 63.3% of the vote—up 17 points from his 46.2% in the 2024 general election—against a field dominated by novelty candidates after major parties boycotted the contest he triggered via resignation. Pre-election constituency polling from Survation showed him on track for roughly 73%, reflecting strong retention among Reform UK supporters in the constituency. With results now confirmed and turnout at 44%, only procedural steps such as an official declaration or any unforeseen recount could still alter the final tally for market resolution.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
交易量
$31,748結束日期
2026-08-13市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ET已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
Nigel Farage's decisive victory in the August 2026 Clacton by-election has locked in trader consensus at near-certainty for an increased vote share. He secured 63.3% of the vote—up 17 points from his 46.2% in the 2024 general election—against a field dominated by novelty candidates after major parties boycotted the contest he triggered via resignation. Pre-election constituency polling from Survation showed him on track for roughly 73%, reflecting strong retention among Reform UK supporters in the constituency. With results now confirmed and turnout at 44%, only procedural steps such as an official declaration or any unforeseen recount could still alter the final tally for market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions