Iran has conducted repeated direct missile and drone strikes into Iraqi territory since February 2026, primarily targeting U.S. facilities, diplomatic sites, and Iranian Kurdish opposition groups in the Kurdistan Region, with over 1,000 such attacks reported through late summer. These actions occur amid the broader regional conflict, where Iran seeks to pressure U.S. presence and create buffer zones while using Iraqi proxies for indirect operations against Saudi Arabia and others. Recent catalysts include the late September U.S. troop withdrawal from bases in Erbil and elsewhere, which removed prior constraints, alongside Iraqi government efforts to disarm or control Iran-backed militias by mid-2027 deadlines. Trader assessments of future direct Iranian strikes on Iraq hinge on escalation signals from Tehran, U.S. or Israeli responses, militia compliance, and any diplomatic openings, with resolution turning on confirmed Iranian-origin strikes meeting specific criteria like ballistic missiles or airstrikes.