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鎖骨會在2026年5月1日前流下來嗎？

Market icon

鎖骨會在2026年5月1日前流下來嗎？

38% 機率
Polymarket

$17,860 交易量

38% 機率
Polymarket

$17,860 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular visibly sheds tears that can be clearly observed on their face during any live stream broadcast by May 1, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 'crying' must occur while Clavicular is live on stream and the tears must be visible on camera. Crying that occurs off-camera, is only mentioned or described verbally, or occurs outside of a live stream (e.g. in real life off-stream or in edited content) will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source is Clavicular's Kick.com channel (https://www.kick.com/clavicular) or credible video clips from the stream; however, a consensus of credible reporting or widely circulated video evidence may also be used. Clavicular's trader consensus favors No at 62.5% implied probability for visible tears on live stream by May 1, driven by his recent form showing emotional volatility without crossing the threshold—most notably yesterday's April 3 stream where he endured a live chokeout, convulsions, and brutal chat backlash before rage-quitting, yet held back tears despite near-meltdowns. March breakdowns over friendships, exposures, and girlfriend Violet Lentz's arrest warrant spiked Yes odds temporarily, but stricter resolution rules demanding on-camera tears, combined with his resilient "crashouts" amid ongoing legal drama and X pile-ons, reflect crowd wisdom that he's toughening amid high-stakes IRL matchups, lowering upset potential over the next 27 days.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular visibly sheds tears that can be clearly observed on their face during any live stream broadcast by May 1, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The 'crying' must occur while Clavicular is live on stream and the tears must be visible on camera. Crying that occurs off-camera, is only mentioned or described verbally, or occurs outside of a live stream (e.g. in real life off-stream or in edited content) will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source is Clavicular's Kick.com channel (https://www.kick.com/clavicular) or credible video clips from the stream; however, a consensus of credible reporting or widely circulated video evidence may also be used.



交易量
$17,860
結束日期
2026-05-01
市場開放時間
Mar 10, 2026, 7:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular visibly sheds tears that can be clearly observed on their face during any live stream broadcast by May 1, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 'crying' must occur while Clavicular is live on stream and the tears must be visible on camera. Crying that occurs off-camera, is only mentioned or described verbally, or occurs outside of a live stream (e.g. in real life off-stream or in edited content) will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source is Clavicular's Kick.com channel (https://www.kick.com/clavicular) or credible video clips from the stream; however, a consensus of credible reporting or widely circulated video evidence may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular visibly sheds tears that can be clearly observed on their face during any live stream broadcast by May 1, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 'crying' must occur while Clavicular is live on stream and the tears must be visible on camera. Crying that occurs off-camera, is only mentioned or described verbally, or occurs outside of a live stream (e.g. in real life off-stream or in edited content) will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source is Clavicular's Kick.com channel (https://www.kick.com/clavicular) or credible video clips from the stream; however, a consensus of credible reporting or widely circulated video evidence may also be used. Clavicular's trader consensus favors No at 62.5% implied probability for visible tears on live stream by May 1, driven by his recent form showing emotional volatility without crossing the threshold—most notably yesterday's April 3 stream where he endured a live chokeout, convulsions, and brutal chat backlash before rage-quitting, yet held back tears despite near-meltdowns. March breakdowns over friendships, exposures, and girlfriend Violet Lentz's arrest warrant spiked Yes odds temporarily, but stricter resolution rules demanding on-camera tears, combined with his resilient "crashouts" amid ongoing legal drama and X pile-ons, reflect crowd wisdom that he's toughening amid high-stakes IRL matchups, lowering upset potential over the next 27 days.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular visibly sheds tears that can be clearly observed on their face during any live stream broadcast by May 1, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The 'crying' must occur while Clavicular is live on stream and the tears must be visible on camera. Crying that occurs off-camera, is only mentioned or described verbally, or occurs outside of a live stream (e.g. in real life off-stream or in edited content) will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source is Clavicular's Kick.com channel (https://www.kick.com/clavicular) or credible video clips from the stream; however, a consensus of credible reporting or widely circulated video evidence may also be used.



交易量
$17,860
結束日期
2026-05-01
市場開放時間
Mar 10, 2026, 7:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular visibly sheds tears that can be clearly observed on their face during any live stream broadcast by May 1, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 'crying' must occur while Clavicular is live on stream and the tears must be visible on camera. Crying that occurs off-camera, is only mentioned or described verbally, or occurs outside of a live stream (e.g. in real life off-stream or in edited content) will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source is Clavicular's Kick.com channel (https://www.kick.com/clavicular) or credible video clips from the stream; however, a consensus of credible reporting or widely circulated video evidence may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"鎖骨會在2026年5月1日前流下來嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 38% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 38¢, the market collectively assigns a 38% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "鎖骨會在2026年5月1日前流下來嗎？" has generated $17.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "鎖骨會在2026年5月1日前流下來嗎？," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "鎖骨會在2026年5月1日前流下來嗎？" is 38% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 38% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "鎖骨會在2026年5月1日前流下來嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.