Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Argentina will not dollarize by June 30, 2026, driven by President Javier Milei's pragmatic shift from his 2023 campaign pledge toward stabilizing the peso through fiscal austerity and monetary reforms rather than immediate currency replacement. Recent developments, including a new exchange rate framework launched January 2026 with expanding trading bands tied to inflation, reserve accumulation amid loosened currency controls (Argentines bought $26 billion in dollars since early 2026), and a budget surplus from $67 billion spending cuts, prioritize re-monetization and debt management over dollarization prerequisites like ample net reserves and congressional approval. With just three months remaining, procedural hurdles—including Central Bank (BCRA) coordination and potential IMF negotiations—remain unaddressed; only a surprise executive action, massive foreign aid influx, or legislative fast-track could shift odds, though none appear imminent.