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Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through 2022?

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Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through 2022?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei (titled "Ali Hoseini-KHAMENEI" on the resolution source) remains the Supreme Leader of Iran without interruption from September 29, 2022, through December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Iran, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/iran/#government. If the Islamic Republic of Iran is dissolved or otherwise ceases to exist before the resolution date of this market, or if the Supreme Leader of Iran position is otherwise eliminated, the market will resolve to “No”. Other definitive credible reporting may also be considered in the event that the resolution source becomes unavailable or does not update.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei (titled "Ali Hoseini-KHAMENEI" on the resolution source) remains the Supreme Leader of Iran without interruption from September 29, 2022, through December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Iran, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/iran/#government. If the Islamic Republic of Iran is dissolved or otherwise ceases to exist before the resolution date of this market, or if the Supreme Leader of Iran position is otherwise eliminated, the market will resolve to “No”. Other definitive credible reporting may also be considered in the event that the resolution source becomes unavailable or does not update.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through 2022?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through 2022?" has generated $19.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 29, 2022. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through 2022?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through 2022?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Ali Khamenei remain Supreme Leader of Iran through 2022?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.