以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？

安迪·貝希爾 31%

皮特·布塔朱吉 21%

加文·紐森 19.6%

卡馬拉·哈里斯 12%

最新

2028-12-31

安迪·貝希爾

$1,914 交易量

31%

皮特·布塔朱吉

$603 交易量

21%

加文·紐森

$2,857 交易量

20%

卡馬拉·哈里斯

$504 交易量

12%

羅·卡納

$463 交易量

Rahm Emanuel

$592 交易量

喬什·夏皮羅

$306 交易量

史蒂芬·A·史密斯

$300 交易量

喬恩·奧索夫

$306 交易量

亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特茲

$391 交易量

Jon Stewart

$364 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

"以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "安迪·貝希爾" at 31%, followed by "皮特·布塔朱吉" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" is "安迪·貝希爾" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "皮特·布塔朱吉" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 31¢ for "安迪·貝希爾" in the "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 31% chance that "安迪·貝希爾" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 31¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 69¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" market is a long-term prediction with a resolution date of Dec 31, 2027 — that's roughly over 1 year away. Long-term markets on Polymarket often see their odds shift significantly as events unfold, making them useful for tracking evolving sentiment. You can trade at any time or bookmark this page to follow the odds over the months and years ahead.

The "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？

以下哪位民主黨人將首先宣布競選總統？

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Frequently Asked Questions

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