Toy Story 5’s dominant 94.5% market-implied probability for the third-biggest domestic opening weekend of 2026 stems from its record-shattering $160 million June debut, the largest of the year at the time and a franchise high that topped The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million launch while ranking among Pixar’s strongest animated starts. Strong critical and audience reception, broad family appeal, and the enduring brand power of the series created immediate momentum that few subsequent releases have matched. Traders see limited realistic paths for an upset, though a surprise late-year surge from Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, or an unlisted title could shift the ranking if tracking estimates prove conservative.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於哪部電影在2026年的首映週末排名第三？
哪部電影在2026年的首映週末排名第三？
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.3%
Avengers: Doomsday 1.7%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$25,695 交易量
$25,695 交易量
2026-12-31
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.3%
Avengers: Doomsday 1.7%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$25,695 交易量
$25,695 交易量
2026-12-31
Toy Story 5
$18,092 交易量
95%
Dune: Messiah
$1,421 交易量
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,065 交易量
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$981 交易量
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$1,642 交易量
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$860 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s dominant 94.5% market-implied probability for the third-biggest domestic opening weekend of 2026 stems from its record-shattering $160 million June debut, the largest of the year at the time and a franchise high that topped The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million launch while ranking among Pixar’s strongest animated starts. Strong critical and audience reception, broad family appeal, and the enduring brand power of the series created immediate momentum that few subsequent releases have matched. Traders see limited realistic paths for an upset, though a surprise late-year surge from Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, or an unlisted title could shift the ranking if tracking estimates prove conservative.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
交易量
$25,695結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s dominant 94.5% market-implied probability for the third-biggest domestic opening weekend of 2026 stems from its record-shattering $160 million June debut, the largest of the year at the time and a franchise high that topped The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million launch while ranking among Pixar’s strongest animated starts. Strong critical and audience reception, broad family appeal, and the enduring brand power of the series created immediate momentum that few subsequent releases have matched. Traders see limited realistic paths for an upset, though a surprise late-year surge from Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, or an unlisted title could shift the ranking if tracking estimates prove conservative.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$25,695結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETToy Story 5’s dominant 94.5% market-implied probability for the third-biggest domestic opening weekend of 2026 stems from its record-shattering $160 million June debut, the largest of the year at the time and a franchise high that topped The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million launch while ranking among Pixar’s strongest animated starts. Strong critical and audience reception, broad family appeal, and the enduring brand power of the series created immediate momentum that few subsequent releases have matched. Traders see limited realistic paths for an upset, though a surprise late-year surge from Dune: Messiah, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, or an unlisted title could shift the ranking if tracking estimates prove conservative.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions