Escalating maritime attacks by Iranian forces on commercial tankers and the resulting sharp contraction in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant near-term drivers of trader positioning. As of mid-October 2026, AIS-visible traffic has fallen to roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels, with only single-digit daily transits amid ongoing projectile strikes and Iranian surveillance expansions, sustaining a geopolitical risk premium that has lifted Brent crude above $105 per barrel. U.S. Central Command’s coordination of escorted passages and naval reinforcements, including carrier and mine-countermeasure assets, underscores active control efforts that support higher energy export volumes from Gulf partners while elevating insurance and tanker charter costs. These dynamics tie directly to elevated crack spreads and forward curves pricing persistent supply uncertainty through year-end, with any de-escalation or further Iranian interdiction likely to shift implied probabilities on naval transits by major powers.