Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models anchor the 65.5% market-implied odds through repeated top rankings on independent leaderboards, superior prompt adherence, native audio synchronization, and realistic physics simulation that competitors have not matched in recent head-to-head tests. These capabilities stem from Google DeepMind’s large-scale video training data, iterative releases throughout 2025 and 2026, and seamless integration across Gemini, Flow, and Vertex AI, giving the company a broad distribution advantage. Traders appear to view near-term updates or new entrants as unlikely to close the gap before October resolution, though rapid iteration by Chinese labs or OpenAI could still shift sentiment if benchmark gaps narrow quickly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 67%
字節跳動 11%
阿里巴巴／Alibaba-ATH 1.3%
Meta <1%
$36,018 交易量
$36,018 交易量
2026-10-31
67%
字節跳動
11%
阿里巴巴／Alibaba-ATH
1%
Meta
<1%
Pixverse
<1%
KlingAI
<1%
Pruna
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
Kandinsky
<1%
騰訊
<1%
Lightricks
<1%
Pika
<1%
Genmo AI
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Runway
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Google 67%
字節跳動 11%
阿里巴巴／Alibaba-ATH 1.3%
Meta <1%
$36,018 交易量
$36,018 交易量
2026-10-31
$25,004 交易量
67%
字節跳動
$4,217 交易量
11%
阿里巴巴／Alibaba-ATH
$718 交易量
1%
Meta
$385 交易量
<1%
Pixverse
$416 交易量
<1%
KlingAI
$568 交易量
<1%
Pruna
$341 交易量
<1%
Luma AI
$508 交易量
<1%
Kandinsky
$425 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$441 交易量
<1%
Lightricks
$416 交易量
<1%
Pika
$459 交易量
<1%
Genmo AI
$432 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$483 交易量
<1%
Runway
$417 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$416 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$373 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models anchor the 65.5% market-implied odds through repeated top rankings on independent leaderboards, superior prompt adherence, native audio synchronization, and realistic physics simulation that competitors have not matched in recent head-to-head tests. These capabilities stem from Google DeepMind’s large-scale video training data, iterative releases throughout 2025 and 2026, and seamless integration across Gemini, Flow, and Vertex AI, giving the company a broad distribution advantage. Traders appear to view near-term updates or new entrants as unlikely to close the gap before October resolution, though rapid iteration by Chinese labs or OpenAI could still shift sentiment if benchmark gaps narrow quickly.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
交易量
$36,018結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models anchor the 65.5% market-implied odds through repeated top rankings on independent leaderboards, superior prompt adherence, native audio synchronization, and realistic physics simulation that competitors have not matched in recent head-to-head tests. These capabilities stem from Google DeepMind’s large-scale video training data, iterative releases throughout 2025 and 2026, and seamless integration across Gemini, Flow, and Vertex AI, giving the company a broad distribution advantage. Traders appear to view near-term updates or new entrants as unlikely to close the gap before October resolution, though rapid iteration by Chinese labs or OpenAI could still shift sentiment if benchmark gaps narrow quickly.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$36,018結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETGoogle’s Veo 3.1 and Gemini Omni Flash models anchor the 65.5% market-implied odds through repeated top rankings on independent leaderboards, superior prompt adherence, native audio synchronization, and realistic physics simulation that competitors have not matched in recent head-to-head tests. These capabilities stem from Google DeepMind’s large-scale video training data, iterative releases throughout 2025 and 2026, and seamless integration across Gemini, Flow, and Vertex AI, giving the company a broad distribution advantage. Traders appear to view near-term updates or new entrants as unlikely to close the gap before October resolution, though rapid iteration by Chinese labs or OpenAI could still shift sentiment if benchmark gaps narrow quickly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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