Anthropic's commanding 93.5% market-implied odds stem primarily from its recent demonstration of frontier mathematical reasoning, including an August 11 announcement that an unreleased Claude research model substantially advanced the Riemann hypothesis by raising the verified lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%. This aligns with Anthropic models such as Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 consistently leading or ranking at the top of Text Arena overall and specialized math leaderboards like MathArena as of mid-August 2026. Traders view these results as strong evidence of sustained superiority in the exact category the market resolves on. A last-minute model update or release from OpenAI, Google, or another lab that overtakes Anthropic on the Text Arena Math tab before August 31 remains the main realistic scenario that could shift the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 4.4%
Google 1.4%
阿里巴巴 <1%
$85,827 交易量
$85,827 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
94%
OpenAI
4%
1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
百度
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
小米
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
美團
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Mistral
<1%
騰訊
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微軟
<1%
Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 4.4%
Google 1.4%
阿里巴巴 <1%
$85,827 交易量
$85,827 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$28,885 交易量
94%
OpenAI
$11,277 交易量
4%
$17,701 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$8,793 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,690 交易量
<1%
百度
$4,432 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$3,148 交易量
<1%
小米
$372 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$372 交易量
<1%
Meta
$494 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$1,079 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,125 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,122 交易量
<1%
美團
$553 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$451 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$495 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$372 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$564 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$531 交易量
<1%
微軟
$372 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's commanding 93.5% market-implied odds stem primarily from its recent demonstration of frontier mathematical reasoning, including an August 11 announcement that an unreleased Claude research model substantially advanced the Riemann hypothesis by raising the verified lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%. This aligns with Anthropic models such as Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 consistently leading or ranking at the top of Text Arena overall and specialized math leaderboards like MathArena as of mid-August 2026. Traders view these results as strong evidence of sustained superiority in the exact category the market resolves on. A last-minute model update or release from OpenAI, Google, or another lab that overtakes Anthropic on the Text Arena Math tab before August 31 remains the main realistic scenario that could shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ET
交易量
$85,827結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's commanding 93.5% market-implied odds stem primarily from its recent demonstration of frontier mathematical reasoning, including an August 11 announcement that an unreleased Claude research model substantially advanced the Riemann hypothesis by raising the verified lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%. This aligns with Anthropic models such as Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 consistently leading or ranking at the top of Text Arena overall and specialized math leaderboards like MathArena as of mid-August 2026. Traders view these results as strong evidence of sustained superiority in the exact category the market resolves on. A last-minute model update or release from OpenAI, Google, or another lab that overtakes Anthropic on the Text Arena Math tab before August 31 remains the main realistic scenario that could shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$85,827結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ETAnthropic's commanding 93.5% market-implied odds stem primarily from its recent demonstration of frontier mathematical reasoning, including an August 11 announcement that an unreleased Claude research model substantially advanced the Riemann hypothesis by raising the verified lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2%. This aligns with Anthropic models such as Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 consistently leading or ranking at the top of Text Arena overall and specialized math leaderboards like MathArena as of mid-August 2026. Traders view these results as strong evidence of sustained superiority in the exact category the market resolves on. A last-minute model update or release from OpenAI, Google, or another lab that overtakes Anthropic on the Text Arena Math tab before August 31 remains the main realistic scenario that could shift the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions