Anthropic’s dominant position on recent LiveBench snapshots drives the 82.5% market-implied odds, with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest overall scores across the benchmark’s seven contamination-free categories including reasoning, coding, and math. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o3-mini models trail in current public leaderboards despite strong agentic coding results, explaining the sharp gap to 11.5%. Traders weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge in multi-category averages against the risk of new OpenAI or Google releases before the October 31 snapshot, while lower-probability names like Alibaba or Moonshot remain sidelined by sizable score deficits. The narrow window to resolution amplifies focus on any verified capability jumps or configuration updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 83%
OpenAI 11%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$20,633 交易量
$20,633 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
83%
OpenAI
11%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
StepFun
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Baidu
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
1%
Thinky
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 83%
OpenAI 11%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$20,633 交易量
$20,633 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$9,026 交易量
83%
OpenAI
$2,945 交易量
11%
SpaceXAI
$443 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$435 交易量
1%
ByteDance
$492 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$386 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$465 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$498 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$471 交易量
1%
StepFun
$445 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$433 交易量
1%
Amazon
$481 交易量
1%
Meta
$481 交易量
1%
$411 交易量
1%
Baidu
$494 交易量
1%
Mistral
$459 交易量
1%
Tencent
$492 交易量
1%
Thinky
$445 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$445 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$427 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$457 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s dominant position on recent LiveBench snapshots drives the 82.5% market-implied odds, with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest overall scores across the benchmark’s seven contamination-free categories including reasoning, coding, and math. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o3-mini models trail in current public leaderboards despite strong agentic coding results, explaining the sharp gap to 11.5%. Traders weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge in multi-category averages against the risk of new OpenAI or Google releases before the October 31 snapshot, while lower-probability names like Alibaba or Moonshot remain sidelined by sizable score deficits. The narrow window to resolution amplifies focus on any verified capability jumps or configuration updates.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
交易量
$20,633結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s dominant position on recent LiveBench snapshots drives the 82.5% market-implied odds, with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest overall scores across the benchmark’s seven contamination-free categories including reasoning, coding, and math. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o3-mini models trail in current public leaderboards despite strong agentic coding results, explaining the sharp gap to 11.5%. Traders weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge in multi-category averages against the risk of new OpenAI or Google releases before the October 31 snapshot, while lower-probability names like Alibaba or Moonshot remain sidelined by sizable score deficits. The narrow window to resolution amplifies focus on any verified capability jumps or configuration updates.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$20,633結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETAnthropic’s dominant position on recent LiveBench snapshots drives the 82.5% market-implied odds, with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants posting the highest overall scores across the benchmark’s seven contamination-free categories including reasoning, coding, and math. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and o3-mini models trail in current public leaderboards despite strong agentic coding results, explaining the sharp gap to 11.5%. Traders weigh Anthropic’s consistent edge in multi-category averages against the risk of new OpenAI or Google releases before the October 31 snapshot, while lower-probability names like Alibaba or Moonshot remain sidelined by sizable score deficits. The narrow window to resolution amplifies focus on any verified capability jumps or configuration updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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