Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 62% to lead LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, driven by consistent frontier performance from its Claude Fable and Opus series on contamination-resistant math evaluations and recent demonstrations of advanced reasoning such as machine-checked formalization of complex theorems. OpenAI sits at 35.5% as traders weigh its agent-swarm breakthroughs on longstanding problems like Navier-Stokes alongside strong Codex variants, though these have not yet translated into a decisive LiveBench math edge. Google trails far behind at 3.5% amid slower visible progress on the specific benchmark. The remaining field stays fragmented near 50% or lower, reflecting uncertainty over whether Chinese labs like DeepSeek or Z.ai, or others, can deliver a late-cycle model update that overtakes current leaders before the October snapshot. Key near-term catalysts include any new LiveBench releases or major model launches that could shift the mathematics category standings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 63%
OpenAI 36%
Google 3.4%
MiniMax <1%
$21,522 交易量
$21,522 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
63%
OpenAI
36%
3%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
微軟
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
美團
<1%
騰訊
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 63%
OpenAI 36%
Google 3.4%
MiniMax <1%
$21,522 交易量
$21,522 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$5,352 交易量
63%
OpenAI
$6,389 交易量
36%
$1,441 交易量
3%
MiniMax
$488 交易量
1%
Mistral
$513 交易量
1%
Meta
$501 交易量
<1%
Alibaba
$475 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$286 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$390 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$858 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$253 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$518 交易量
<1%
微軟
$509 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$479 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$586 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$454 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$386 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$562 交易量
<1%
美團
$283 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$339 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$459 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 62% to lead LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, driven by consistent frontier performance from its Claude Fable and Opus series on contamination-resistant math evaluations and recent demonstrations of advanced reasoning such as machine-checked formalization of complex theorems. OpenAI sits at 35.5% as traders weigh its agent-swarm breakthroughs on longstanding problems like Navier-Stokes alongside strong Codex variants, though these have not yet translated into a decisive LiveBench math edge. Google trails far behind at 3.5% amid slower visible progress on the specific benchmark. The remaining field stays fragmented near 50% or lower, reflecting uncertainty over whether Chinese labs like DeepSeek or Z.ai, or others, can deliver a late-cycle model update that overtakes current leaders before the October snapshot. Key near-term catalysts include any new LiveBench releases or major model launches that could shift the mathematics category standings.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
交易量
$21,522結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 62% to lead LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, driven by consistent frontier performance from its Claude Fable and Opus series on contamination-resistant math evaluations and recent demonstrations of advanced reasoning such as machine-checked formalization of complex theorems. OpenAI sits at 35.5% as traders weigh its agent-swarm breakthroughs on longstanding problems like Navier-Stokes alongside strong Codex variants, though these have not yet translated into a decisive LiveBench math edge. Google trails far behind at 3.5% amid slower visible progress on the specific benchmark. The remaining field stays fragmented near 50% or lower, reflecting uncertainty over whether Chinese labs like DeepSeek or Z.ai, or others, can deliver a late-cycle model update that overtakes current leaders before the October snapshot. Key near-term catalysts include any new LiveBench releases or major model launches that could shift the mathematics category standings.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$21,522結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETAnthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 62% to lead LiveBench Mathematics by end of October, driven by consistent frontier performance from its Claude Fable and Opus series on contamination-resistant math evaluations and recent demonstrations of advanced reasoning such as machine-checked formalization of complex theorems. OpenAI sits at 35.5% as traders weigh its agent-swarm breakthroughs on longstanding problems like Navier-Stokes alongside strong Codex variants, though these have not yet translated into a decisive LiveBench math edge. Google trails far behind at 3.5% amid slower visible progress on the specific benchmark. The remaining field stays fragmented near 50% or lower, reflecting uncertainty over whether Chinese labs like DeepSeek or Z.ai, or others, can deliver a late-cycle model update that overtakes current leaders before the October snapshot. Key near-term catalysts include any new LiveBench releases or major model launches that could shift the mathematics category standings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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