Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 has solidified its lead on LiveBench coding tasks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds as traders price in sustained frontier performance through October. The model’s strong results on objective, contamination-resistant coding and agentic subsets reflect Anthropic’s focused post-training on real-world software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later. With LiveBench questions rotating monthly and no major competing model drops expected before end-October, the gap appears durable absent an unexpected capability jump from rivals. OpenAI’s 7.3% reflects its competitive but secondary positioning on the same benchmarks, while lower-probability names face larger capability shortfalls.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 87%
OpenAI 8.5%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,176 交易量
$21,176 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
87%
OpenAI
9%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meta
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
百度
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
小米
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Thinky
<1%
美團
<1%
騰訊
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微軟
<1%
Anthropic 87%
OpenAI 8.5%
SpaceXAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$21,176 交易量
$21,176 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$9,187 交易量
87%
OpenAI
$3,089 交易量
9%
SpaceXAI
$1,081 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$657 交易量
1%
Mistral
$553 交易量
<1%
$546 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$499 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$484 交易量
<1%
Meta
$398 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$355 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$310 交易量
<1%
百度
$395 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$507 交易量
<1%
小米
$468 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$410 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$363 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$454 交易量
<1%
美團
$364 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$297 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$334 交易量
<1%
微軟
$426 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 has solidified its lead on LiveBench coding tasks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds as traders price in sustained frontier performance through October. The model’s strong results on objective, contamination-resistant coding and agentic subsets reflect Anthropic’s focused post-training on real-world software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later. With LiveBench questions rotating monthly and no major competing model drops expected before end-October, the gap appears durable absent an unexpected capability jump from rivals. OpenAI’s 7.3% reflects its competitive but secondary positioning on the same benchmarks, while lower-probability names face larger capability shortfalls.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
交易量
$21,176結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 has solidified its lead on LiveBench coding tasks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds as traders price in sustained frontier performance through October. The model’s strong results on objective, contamination-resistant coding and agentic subsets reflect Anthropic’s focused post-training on real-world software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later. With LiveBench questions rotating monthly and no major competing model drops expected before end-October, the gap appears durable absent an unexpected capability jump from rivals. OpenAI’s 7.3% reflects its competitive but secondary positioning on the same benchmarks, while lower-probability names face larger capability shortfalls.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
交易量
$21,176結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAnthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release on September 1 has solidified its lead on LiveBench coding tasks, driving the 86.5% market-implied odds as traders price in sustained frontier performance through October. The model’s strong results on objective, contamination-resistant coding and agentic subsets reflect Anthropic’s focused post-training on real-world software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch two days later. With LiveBench questions rotating monthly and no major competing model drops expected before end-October, the gap appears durable absent an unexpected capability jump from rivals. OpenAI’s 7.3% reflects its competitive but secondary positioning on the same benchmarks, while lower-probability names face larger capability shortfalls.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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