Anthropic’s recent launches of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus 5 variants have driven its 71.5% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 and Terminal-Bench with scores around 84.4, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at roughly 84.1. These large language models demonstrate stronger results in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work evaluations, reflecting Anthropic’s focus on capability and safety alignments. OpenAI’s September 3 release of Astra narrows the gap in some metrics but trails in trader consensus for overall leadership by end of October. Google’s Gemini models sit lower at 5.9% amid slower recent gains, while other labs remain marginal. Key catalysts ahead include any additional model updates or benchmark updates before the resolution date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 72%
OpenAI 19.1%
Google 6.1%
Meta 1.0%
$234,367 交易量
$234,367 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
72%
OpenAI
19%
6%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 72%
OpenAI 19.1%
Google 6.1%
Meta 1.0%
$234,367 交易量
$234,367 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$40,348 交易量
72%
OpenAI
$22,352 交易量
19%
$20,551 交易量
6%
Meta
$22,209 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$17,114 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$18,668 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$17,719 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$15,833 交易量
<1%
Alibaba
$13,863 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$12,006 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$11,129 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$925 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$949 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$540 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launches of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus 5 variants have driven its 71.5% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 and Terminal-Bench with scores around 84.4, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at roughly 84.1. These large language models demonstrate stronger results in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work evaluations, reflecting Anthropic’s focus on capability and safety alignments. OpenAI’s September 3 release of Astra narrows the gap in some metrics but trails in trader consensus for overall leadership by end of October. Google’s Gemini models sit lower at 5.9% amid slower recent gains, while other labs remain marginal. Key catalysts ahead include any additional model updates or benchmark updates before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
交易量
$234,367結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launches of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus 5 variants have driven its 71.5% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 and Terminal-Bench with scores around 84.4, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at roughly 84.1. These large language models demonstrate stronger results in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work evaluations, reflecting Anthropic’s focus on capability and safety alignments. OpenAI’s September 3 release of Astra narrows the gap in some metrics but trails in trader consensus for overall leadership by end of October. Google’s Gemini models sit lower at 5.9% amid slower recent gains, while other labs remain marginal. Key catalysts ahead include any additional model updates or benchmark updates before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$234,367結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETAnthropic’s recent launches of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus 5 variants have driven its 71.5% implied probability by topping independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 and Terminal-Bench with scores around 84.4, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at roughly 84.1. These large language models demonstrate stronger results in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work evaluations, reflecting Anthropic’s focus on capability and safety alignments. OpenAI’s September 3 release of Astra narrows the gap in some metrics but trails in trader consensus for overall leadership by end of October. Google’s Gemini models sit lower at 5.9% amid slower recent gains, while other labs remain marginal. Key catalysts ahead include any additional model updates or benchmark updates before the resolution date.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions