Anthropic's recent Claude releases, particularly Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven the 92.5% implied probability by claiming top spots on major leaderboards including BenchLM and composite indices as of early August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks compared with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and other rivals, supported by verified benchmark scores and official launches earlier in the year. Traders view this edge as durable through month-end absent major disruptions. A surprise flagship release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before August 31 could narrow the gap, though current data shows limited signs of such movement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 4.4%
谷歌 2.0%
Meta <1%
$1,374,079 交易量
$1,374,079 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
93%
OpenAI
4%
谷歌
2%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
百度
<1%
小米
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美團
<1%
騰訊
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微軟
<1%
Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 4.4%
谷歌 2.0%
Meta <1%
$1,374,079 交易量
$1,374,079 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$299,046 交易量
93%
OpenAI
$139,022 交易量
4%
谷歌
$115,215 交易量
2%
Meta
$129,008 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$86,280 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$115,005 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$120,334 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$101,368 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$118,885 交易量
<1%
百度
$15,026 交易量
<1%
小米
$11,003 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$9,772 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$37,660 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$11,459 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$12,838 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$23,156 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$4,345 交易量
<1%
美團
$3,797 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$4,357 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$4,987 交易量
<1%
微軟
$11,518 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude releases, particularly Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven the 92.5% implied probability by claiming top spots on major leaderboards including BenchLM and composite indices as of early August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks compared with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and other rivals, supported by verified benchmark scores and official launches earlier in the year. Traders view this edge as durable through month-end absent major disruptions. A surprise flagship release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before August 31 could narrow the gap, though current data shows limited signs of such movement.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,374,079結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude releases, particularly Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven the 92.5% implied probability by claiming top spots on major leaderboards including BenchLM and composite indices as of early August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks compared with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and other rivals, supported by verified benchmark scores and official launches earlier in the year. Traders view this edge as durable through month-end absent major disruptions. A surprise flagship release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before August 31 could narrow the gap, though current data shows limited signs of such movement.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$1,374,079結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETAnthropic's recent Claude releases, particularly Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, have driven the 92.5% implied probability by claiming top spots on major leaderboards including BenchLM and composite indices as of early August 2026. These large language models demonstrate superior performance in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks compared with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and other rivals, supported by verified benchmark scores and official launches earlier in the year. Traders view this edge as durable through month-end absent major disruptions. A surprise flagship release or benchmark shift from OpenAI, Google, or another lab before August 31 could narrow the gap, though current data shows limited signs of such movement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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