Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 have driven its 76.5% implied probability, as these large language models lead independent benchmarks in reasoning, agentic workflows, coding, and Humanity’s Last Exam scores as of mid-September 2026. Traders view the short window to end-October as insufficient for OpenAI’s newly launched GPT-6 Astra or rivals like Google and Meta to close the gap in verified capability metrics. Lower odds for OpenAI at 10.3% reflect Astra’s mixed results against Anthropic’s edge in knowledge work and tool-use evaluations, while other labs remain further behind on frontier aggregates. No major model launches or benchmark shifts are scheduled before resolution, reinforcing the current trader consensus on sustained leadership.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 10.4%
Meta 7.8%
Google 6.4%
$21,183 交易量
$21,183 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
77%
OpenAI
10%
Meta
8%
6%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
Amazon
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 10.4%
Meta 7.8%
Google 6.4%
$21,183 交易量
$21,183 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$12,979 交易量
77%
OpenAI
$695 交易量
10%
Meta
$468 交易量
8%
$543 交易量
6%
Moonshot
$438 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$446 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$406 交易量
1%
Baidu
$246 交易量
1%
ByteDance
$382 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$409 交易量
1%
Thinky
$375 交易量
1%
Meituan
$366 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$371 交易量
1%
Tencent
$366 交易量
1%
Microsoft
$364 交易量
1%
StepFun
$367 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$371 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$328 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$502 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$388 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$372 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 have driven its 76.5% implied probability, as these large language models lead independent benchmarks in reasoning, agentic workflows, coding, and Humanity’s Last Exam scores as of mid-September 2026. Traders view the short window to end-October as insufficient for OpenAI’s newly launched GPT-6 Astra or rivals like Google and Meta to close the gap in verified capability metrics. Lower odds for OpenAI at 10.3% reflect Astra’s mixed results against Anthropic’s edge in knowledge work and tool-use evaluations, while other labs remain further behind on frontier aggregates. No major model launches or benchmark shifts are scheduled before resolution, reinforcing the current trader consensus on sustained leadership.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$21,183結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 have driven its 76.5% implied probability, as these large language models lead independent benchmarks in reasoning, agentic workflows, coding, and Humanity’s Last Exam scores as of mid-September 2026. Traders view the short window to end-October as insufficient for OpenAI’s newly launched GPT-6 Astra or rivals like Google and Meta to close the gap in verified capability metrics. Lower odds for OpenAI at 10.3% reflect Astra’s mixed results against Anthropic’s edge in knowledge work and tool-use evaluations, while other labs remain further behind on frontier aggregates. No major model launches or benchmark shifts are scheduled before resolution, reinforcing the current trader consensus on sustained leadership.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$21,183結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETAnthropic’s recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 have driven its 76.5% implied probability, as these large language models lead independent benchmarks in reasoning, agentic workflows, coding, and Humanity’s Last Exam scores as of mid-September 2026. Traders view the short window to end-October as insufficient for OpenAI’s newly launched GPT-6 Astra or rivals like Google and Meta to close the gap in verified capability metrics. Lower odds for OpenAI at 10.3% reflect Astra’s mixed results against Anthropic’s edge in knowledge work and tool-use evaluations, while other labs remain further behind on frontier aggregates. No major model launches or benchmark shifts are scheduled before resolution, reinforcing the current trader consensus on sustained leadership.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions