Anthropic's 95% market-implied probability reflects its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently leading major intelligence and coding benchmarks, including top Artificial Analysis scores and LMSYS Arena composite rankings as of early August 2026. Recent July releases from OpenAI (GPT-5.6 variants) and Google (Gemini 3.6 Flash series) improved agentic and multimodal capabilities but did not displace Anthropic's edge in verifiable performance metrics. With only weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution and no announced frontier launches on the immediate horizon, traders see minimal near-term disruption risk. A surprise high-scoring release from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpected benchmark shift, remains the primary scenario that could narrow the gap.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 95.0%
OpenAI 3.2%
Google 2.7%
SpaceXAI 1.8%
$23,441 交易量
$23,441 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
95%
OpenAI
3%
3%
SpaceXAI
2%
字節跳動
1%
StepFun
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
小米
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
百度
<1%
騰訊
<1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Thinky
<1%
美團
<1%
Mistral
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
微軟
<1%
Anthropic 95.0%
OpenAI 3.2%
Google 2.7%
SpaceXAI 1.8%
$23,441 交易量
$23,441 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$4,999 交易量
95%
OpenAI
$2,838 交易量
3%
$2,046 交易量
3%
SpaceXAI
$1,224 交易量
2%
字節跳動
$608 交易量
1%
StepFun
$721 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$1,180 交易量
<1%
小米
$718 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$690 交易量
<1%
百度
$908 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$891 交易量
<1%
Meta
$1,067 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$802 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$1,069 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$459 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$330 交易量
<1%
美團
$939 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$330 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$774 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$344 交易量
<1%
微軟
$505 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's 95% market-implied probability reflects its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently leading major intelligence and coding benchmarks, including top Artificial Analysis scores and LMSYS Arena composite rankings as of early August 2026. Recent July releases from OpenAI (GPT-5.6 variants) and Google (Gemini 3.6 Flash series) improved agentic and multimodal capabilities but did not displace Anthropic's edge in verifiable performance metrics. With only weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution and no announced frontier launches on the immediate horizon, traders see minimal near-term disruption risk. A surprise high-scoring release from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpected benchmark shift, remains the primary scenario that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
交易量
$23,441結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's 95% market-implied probability reflects its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently leading major intelligence and coding benchmarks, including top Artificial Analysis scores and LMSYS Arena composite rankings as of early August 2026. Recent July releases from OpenAI (GPT-5.6 variants) and Google (Gemini 3.6 Flash series) improved agentic and multimodal capabilities but did not displace Anthropic's edge in verifiable performance metrics. With only weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution and no announced frontier launches on the immediate horizon, traders see minimal near-term disruption risk. A surprise high-scoring release from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpected benchmark shift, remains the primary scenario that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$23,441結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETAnthropic's 95% market-implied probability reflects its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently leading major intelligence and coding benchmarks, including top Artificial Analysis scores and LMSYS Arena composite rankings as of early August 2026. Recent July releases from OpenAI (GPT-5.6 variants) and Google (Gemini 3.6 Flash series) improved agentic and multimodal capabilities but did not displace Anthropic's edge in verifiable performance metrics. With only weeks remaining until end-of-August resolution and no announced frontier launches on the immediate horizon, traders see minimal near-term disruption risk. A surprise high-scoring release from OpenAI or Google, or an unexpected benchmark shift, remains the primary scenario that could narrow the gap.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions