Trader consensus on the next Gemini Pro release reflects ongoing delays for Google's flagship large language model, with the 32.5% implied probability of no launch by November 1 driven by repeated slips from the original June target and a pivot toward frequent Flash variants. Recent September releases of Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Flash Cyber have delivered strong reasoning and coding benchmarks while the Pro model remains in partner testing, as Google prioritizes iterative improvements and Gemini 4 pre-training. This pattern of missed timelines and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models creates wide uncertainty across weekly windows, with traders pricing in the risk that internal performance goals and safety reviews will push resolution later.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於在11月1日前不會發佈 33%
9 月 28 日至 10 月 4 日 12.0%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日 11%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日 6.3%
$43,498 交易量
$43,498 交易量
2026-09-13
9 月 7 日–9 月 13 日
3%
9 月 14 日–9 月 20 日
4%
9 月 21 日–9 月 27 日
6%
9 月 28 日至 10 月 4 日
12%
10月5日–10月11日
3%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日
11%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日
6%
10 月 26 日至 11 月 1 日
3%
在11月1日前不會發佈
33%
在11月1日前不會發佈 33%
9 月 28 日至 10 月 4 日 12.0%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日 11%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日 6.3%
$43,498 交易量
$43,498 交易量
2026-09-13
9 月 7 日–9 月 13 日
$1,354 交易量
3%
9 月 14 日–9 月 20 日
$400 交易量
4%
9 月 21 日–9 月 27 日
$543 交易量
6%
9 月 28 日至 10 月 4 日
$506 交易量
12%
10月5日–10月11日
$373 交易量
3%
10 月 12 日–10 月 18 日
$1,382 交易量
11%
10 月 19 日–10 月 25 日
$427 交易量
6%
10 月 26 日至 11 月 1 日
$451 交易量
3%
在11月1日前不會發佈
$36,770 交易量
33%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on the next Gemini Pro release reflects ongoing delays for Google's flagship large language model, with the 32.5% implied probability of no launch by November 1 driven by repeated slips from the original June target and a pivot toward frequent Flash variants. Recent September releases of Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Flash Cyber have delivered strong reasoning and coding benchmarks while the Pro model remains in partner testing, as Google prioritizes iterative improvements and Gemini 4 pre-training. This pattern of missed timelines and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models creates wide uncertainty across weekly windows, with traders pricing in the risk that internal performance goals and safety reviews will push resolution later.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
交易量
$43,498結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on the next Gemini Pro release reflects ongoing delays for Google's flagship large language model, with the 32.5% implied probability of no launch by November 1 driven by repeated slips from the original June target and a pivot toward frequent Flash variants. Recent September releases of Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Flash Cyber have delivered strong reasoning and coding benchmarks while the Pro model remains in partner testing, as Google prioritizes iterative improvements and Gemini 4 pre-training. This pattern of missed timelines and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models creates wide uncertainty across weekly windows, with traders pricing in the risk that internal performance goals and safety reviews will push resolution later.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$43,498結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETTrader consensus on the next Gemini Pro release reflects ongoing delays for Google's flagship large language model, with the 32.5% implied probability of no launch by November 1 driven by repeated slips from the original June target and a pivot toward frequent Flash variants. Recent September releases of Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Flash Cyber have delivered strong reasoning and coding benchmarks while the Pro model remains in partner testing, as Google prioritizes iterative improvements and Gemini 4 pre-training. This pattern of missed timelines and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic models creates wide uncertainty across weekly windows, with traders pricing in the risk that internal performance goals and safety reviews will push resolution later.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions