Recent Zillow data through August 2026 show the San Francisco metro’s typical home value at $1,123,193 and median sale price at $1,162,270, levels that anchor trader expectations for the September 30 reading near or below $1.176 million. Tight inventory—down 14% year-over-year with only 8,196 homes listed—combined with AI-fueled luxury demand has sustained modest 2.3% annual appreciation without triggering the sharp monthly gains needed to breach higher brackets in the remaining two weeks. Mortgage-rate stability and a seller’s market (17-day median days on market, 107% sale-to-list ratio) reinforce the current pricing trajectory, while seasonal patterns and the short resolution window limit upside volatility. The 83.5% implied probability on the lowest outcome reflects this data-driven consensus among traders with capital at risk.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於低於$1.176M 84%
$1.176M - $1.198M 14.8%
$122萬 - $124.2萬 <1%
$1.198M - $1.220M <1%
$50,499 交易量
$50,499 交易量
低於$1.176M
84%
$1.176M - $1.198M
15%
$1.198M - $1.220M
<1%
$122萬 - $124.2萬
<1%
$1.242M - $1.264M
<1%
$1.264M - $1.284M
<1%
$1.284M以上
<1%
低於$1.176M 84%
$1.176M - $1.198M 14.8%
$122萬 - $124.2萬 <1%
$1.198M - $1.220M <1%
$50,499 交易量
$50,499 交易量
低於$1.176M
84%
$1.176M - $1.198M
15%
$1.198M - $1.220M
<1%
$122萬 - $124.2萬
<1%
$1.242M - $1.264M
<1%
$1.264M - $1.284M
<1%
$1.284M以上
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
市場開放時間: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Recent Zillow data through August 2026 show the San Francisco metro’s typical home value at $1,123,193 and median sale price at $1,162,270, levels that anchor trader expectations for the September 30 reading near or below $1.176 million. Tight inventory—down 14% year-over-year with only 8,196 homes listed—combined with AI-fueled luxury demand has sustained modest 2.3% annual appreciation without triggering the sharp monthly gains needed to breach higher brackets in the remaining two weeks. Mortgage-rate stability and a seller’s market (17-day median days on market, 107% sale-to-list ratio) reinforce the current pricing trajectory, while seasonal patterns and the short resolution window limit upside volatility. The 83.5% implied probability on the lowest outcome reflects this data-driven consensus among traders with capital at risk.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions