Recent inflation readings, including June CPI at a three-year high amid surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader sentiment toward a potential rate hike as the next Fed move. With the federal funds rate held at 3.5-3.75% in the July FOMC decision by a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents for immediate tightening, markets now assign 62.5% implied probability to a hike, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures under new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability. This contrasts with earlier 2026 expectations of cuts, as hotter energy-driven data and revised forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan point to December action. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and the September FOMC meeting, where durable inflation trends could solidify the path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於升息
63% 機率
最新
最新
2028-12-31
升息
63% 機率
最新
最新
2028-12-31
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings, including June CPI at a three-year high amid surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader sentiment toward a potential rate hike as the next Fed move. With the federal funds rate held at 3.5-3.75% in the July FOMC decision by a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents for immediate tightening, markets now assign 62.5% implied probability to a hike, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures under new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability. This contrasts with earlier 2026 expectations of cuts, as hotter energy-driven data and revised forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan point to December action. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and the September FOMC meeting, where durable inflation trends could solidify the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
交易量
$1,863結束日期
2028-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings, including June CPI at a three-year high amid surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader sentiment toward a potential rate hike as the next Fed move. With the federal funds rate held at 3.5-3.75% in the July FOMC decision by a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents for immediate tightening, markets now assign 62.5% implied probability to a hike, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures under new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability. This contrasts with earlier 2026 expectations of cuts, as hotter energy-driven data and revised forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan point to December action. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and the September FOMC meeting, where durable inflation trends could solidify the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,863結束日期
2028-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation readings, including June CPI at a three-year high amid surging oil prices from geopolitical tensions, have shifted trader sentiment toward a potential rate hike as the next Fed move. With the federal funds rate held at 3.5-3.75% in the July FOMC decision by a 9-3 vote featuring three dissents for immediate tightening, markets now assign 62.5% implied probability to a hike, reflecting concerns over persistent price pressures under new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability. This contrasts with earlier 2026 expectations of cuts, as hotter energy-driven data and revised forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan point to December action. Key upcoming catalysts include September CPI and the September FOMC meeting, where durable inflation trends could solidify the path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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