US sanctions and the ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports, intensified by fresh designations on October 8 targeting the remaining shadow fleet, have sharply curtailed oil export revenues and foreign currency inflows, exerting sustained depreciation pressure on the rial. High domestic inflation and limited central bank intervention capacity reinforce expectations of further weakening through year-end. At the same time, trader positioning remains closely balanced because any progress in diplomatic channels ahead of or after the November midterms could ease restrictions or restore limited revenue channels, while Iranian circumvention efforts and existing floating storage provide temporary buffers. These offsetting forces sustain the narrow contest between the 2.5–3.0M and 3.0–3.5M ranges.