Resilient U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s measured tightening path underpin the 67% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2027. Real GDP expanded at a 2.2% annualized rate in Q2 2026, with private forecasters projecting 2.1–2.8% growth for the year and around 2.1% in 2027, supported by consumer spending and AI-related investment. The unemployment rate held at 4.2% in September amid subdued but non-collapsing payroll gains, while headline CPI and PCE inflation remained near 3.4% year-over-year, prompting the Fed to lift the federal funds target to 3.75–4.00% in September with further 25-basis-point hikes priced in by year-end. This “higher-for-longer” stance aims to contain persistent price pressures without derailing expansion, keeping near-term recession models in the low-to-mid teens and supporting trader consensus that a downturn can be avoided through 2027. Key near-term catalysts include October and December FOMC decisions, October employment and inflation releases, and any revisions to growth forecasts.