On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify.
A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.
A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.
The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
US and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding on June 15, 2026, to halt hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, waive certain oil sanctions during talks, and launch 60 days of nuclear negotiations. The framework, mediated in part by Pakistan, sets a signing date of June 19 in Switzerland, with both sides confirming agreed wording. Media outlets obtained and published draft and full text details shortly afterward, including a 14-point structure covering ceasefire terms, sanctions relief pathways, and economic incentives tied to compliance. President Trump indicated public release would follow the ceremony, while administration briefings have already disclosed core elements. These developments have aligned trader consensus with rapid disclosure, as verified primary reporting and official statements confirm the text is now available ahead of the formal signing.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify.
A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.
A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.
The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify.
A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.
A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.
The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
已提議結果: 否
有爭議
已提議結果: 是
有爭議
最終結果: 否
US and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding on June 15, 2026, to halt hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, waive certain oil sanctions during talks, and launch 60 days of nuclear negotiations. The framework, mediated in part by Pakistan, sets a signing date of June 19 in Switzerland, with both sides confirming agreed wording. Media outlets obtained and published draft and full text details shortly afterward, including a 14-point structure covering ceasefire terms, sanctions relief pathways, and economic incentives tied to compliance. President Trump indicated public release would follow the ceremony, while administration briefings have already disclosed core elements. These developments have aligned trader consensus with rapid disclosure, as verified primary reporting and official statements confirm the text is now available ahead of the formal signing.
On June 18, 2026, multiple major news organizations published the full text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, confirming the text's wide public availability. This led to the market price reaching 100% for the June 17 and June 30 outcomes, indicating consensus that the text was released.
Jun 17 2026
US officially releases full 14-point memorandum of understanding text
June 17 surges to 98%39%
The United States government officially released the full text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran, including provisions on ceasefire, sanctions relief, and nuclear commitments. This official release confirmed the authenticity of the text and caused the market price to surge to near 100%.
Jun 17 2026
US releases full 14-point agreement text with Iran
June 17 surges to 100%64%
On June 17, 2026, the United States officially released the full text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran, detailing ceasefire terms, sanctions relief, and nuclear commitments. This public release confirmed the text's availability, causing a sharp rise in market prices for the June 17 and June 30 outcomes.
Jun 17 2026
Iran publishes official 14-point agreement text
June 17 surges to 100%64%
Iran's government published its copy of the 14-point framework deal on June 17, 2026, matching the US release and confirming the text's authenticity. This reinforced market confidence that the agreement text was widely available, supporting the price surge.
Jun 17 2026
Senior US official reads full text of US-Iran memorandum to reporters
June 17 surges to 100%64%
A senior US administration official publicly read the full 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17, 2026, providing detailed provisions and timelines. This official disclosure further confirmed the text's public availability, solidifying market certainty.
Jun 17 2026
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly shares full US-Iran deal text
June 17 rises to 100%3%
On June 17, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian published the full text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on his official social media account, confirming the authenticity and public availability of the agreement text. This official release further solidified market confidence, pushing prices for June 17 and June 30 outcomes to 100%.
Jun 17 2026
US officials publicly release full text of US-Iran memorandum of understanding
June 17 rises to 100%3%
On June 17, US officials publicly read out and released the full text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran, confirming the details of the agreement including ceasefire terms, sanctions relief, and nuclear negotiation framework. This official disclosure confirmed the public availability of the agreement text, supporting the market's resolution to 'Yes' for June 17 and June 30.
Jun 17 2026
US releases official 14-point agreement text with Iran
The United States officially released the 14-point memorandum of understanding text, detailing the terms of the ceasefire, sanctions relief, and nuclear negotiations. This official release, alongside Iran's publication, confirmed the text's wide public availability and led to the market price reaching 100% for the June 17 and June 30 outcomes.
Jun 17 2026
US officially releases full text of 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran
June 17 surges to 100%41%
On June 17, the United States government officially released the full text of the memorandum of understanding with Iran, detailing ceasefire terms, sanctions relief, and nuclear commitments. This official release confirmed the text's wide availability to the public, causing the market prices for the June 17 and June 30 outcomes to reach 100%.
Jun 17 2026
Iran publishes its copy of the 14-point US-Iran framework deal
June 17 surges to 100%41%
On June 17, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian published Tehran's copy of the 14-point framework deal, matching the US release and confirming the text's authenticity and public availability. This further solidified market confidence in the text's release.
Jun 17 2026
Bloomberg reports Iran to resume oil exports under interim US deal
June 17 surges to 55%23%
On June 17, Bloomberg reported that Iran would be allowed to immediately start oil exports under the interim deal with the US, citing a draft of the agreement. This report included verbatim text excerpts, confirming public access to the agreement's wording.
Jun 17 2026
Insurance Journal publishes full 14-point draft memorandum of understanding text
June 17 surges to 55%23%
Insurance Journal published the full text of the 14-point draft MoU on June 17, including detailed provisions about lifting the naval blockade and restoring shipping traffic, confirming the agreement text was widely available to the public.
Jun 17 2026
CNN Obtains and Publishes Full Text of US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding
June 17 surges to 83%40%
CNN published the full 14-point text of the memorandum of understanding obtained from a US official, confirming the exact wording of the agreement and causing a final surge in the June 17 and June 19 markets.
Jun 17 2026
US administration publicly releases full text of 14-point US-Iran agreement
June 17 surges to 100%70%
On June 17, 2026, the US government officially released the full text of the memorandum of understanding with Iran, detailing the ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear program provisions. This public disclosure met the market's resolution criteria, causing prices for June 17 and June 30 outcomes to surge to 100%.
Jun 17 2026
US administration officially releases full 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding text
June 17 surges to 100%68%
On June 17, 2026, a senior US administration official publicly read out and provided the full text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. This official release included detailed provisions on ceasefire, sanctions relief, nuclear commitments, and economic plans, fulfilling the market's criteria for public availability of the agreement text and causing a sharp rise in market prices for June 17 and June 30 outcomes.
Jun 17 2026
Multiple major news outlets publish full text of US-Iran agreement
June 17 surges to 100%45%
On June 17, major news organizations including CNN, The New York Times, Time, Euronews, and NBC News published the full text of the US-Iran 14-point agreement, confirming its wide public availability. This broad media dissemination solidified market confidence that the agreement text was publicly released by June 17.
Jun 17 2026
Senior US officials publicly read and release official 14-point US-Iran agreement text
June 17 surges to 100%17%
On June 17, senior US administration officials publicly read the full 14-point memorandum of understanding text and released the official document, confirming the details of the agreement. Iran's president also published the document on social media, confirming the text's authenticity. This official release and confirmation caused the market to reach 100% certainty that the text was publicly available before the deadline.
Jun 16 2026
Leaked full text of US-Iran memorandum of understanding published by analysts and media
June 16 surges to 39%23%
On June 16, foreign policy analyst Josh Block and Saudi media published the full 14-point draft text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, detailing clauses on sanctions relief, oil exports, and further negotiations. Western media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal and Axios corroborated these details, confirming the authenticity of the text and boosting market confidence in the public release of the agreement text.
Jun 16 2026
Al Arabiya Publishes Leaked Text of US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding
June 16 surges to 59%46%
Saudi state-owned media outlet Al Arabiya obtained and published the full 14-point draft text of the US-Iran agreement, detailing sanctions relief, a $300 billion development fund, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 16 2026
Leaked 14-point draft memorandum of understanding between US and Iran published
June 16 surges to 43%27%
On June 16, foreign policy analyst Josh Block and Saudi media published an identical version of the US-Iran MoU text, detailing all 14 clauses of the agreement to be signed on June 19. Western media outlets corroborated the authenticity of this leaked text, confirming public availability of the agreement's wording.
Jun 16 2026
Leaked and published full text of US-Iran memorandum of understanding
June 17 surges to 70%47%
On June 16, multiple sources including foreign policy analysts and Saudi media published the leaked full text of the 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding, detailing ceasefire extension, sanctions relief, and regional security measures. This public release of the text caused a significant jump in market prices for the June 17 and June 30 outcomes, confirming the availability of the agreement text to the public.
Jun 16 2026
Western Media Outlets Corroborate Leaked US-Iran Agreement Clauses
June 17 surges to 70%41%
Major Western news organizations, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Axios, confirmed the authenticity of the leaked 14-point agreement, driving up the probability of the June 17 outcome.
Jun 16 2026
Bloomberg publishes detailed 14-point draft memorandum of understanding
June 16 surges to 43%27%
Bloomberg News published the full 14-point draft MoU text on June 16, providing the most complete public accounting of the economic and diplomatic terms of the US-Iran agreement, confirming the text's wide availability to the public.
Jun 16 2026
Bloomberg publishes 14-point draft memorandum text between US and Iran
June 17 surges to 64%28%
On June 16, 2026, Bloomberg published the 14-point draft memorandum of understanding text between the US and Iran, providing the public with verbatim portions of the agreement text, which increased market confidence in a "Yes" resolution for text release by June 17 and beyond.
Jun 16 2026
US Vice President JD Vance confirms expectation of text release before signing
June 17 surges to 64%28%
On June 16, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance stated in interviews that the administration expected a full spectrum of representatives at the signing and indicated the finalized text was ready, signaling imminent public release and boosting market prices for near-term text availability.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify.
A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.
A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.
The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
US and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding on June 15, 2026, to halt hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, waive certain oil sanctions during talks, and launch 60 days of nuclear negotiations. The framework, mediated in part by Pakistan, sets a signing date of June 19 in Switzerland, with both sides confirming agreed wording. Media outlets obtained and published draft and full text details shortly afterward, including a 14-point structure covering ceasefire terms, sanctions relief pathways, and economic incentives tied to compliance. President Trump indicated public release would follow the ceremony, while administration briefings have already disclosed core elements. These developments have aligned trader consensus with rapid disclosure, as verified primary reporting and official statements confirm the text is now available ahead of the formal signing.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify.
A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.
A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.
The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify.
A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement.
A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify.
The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
已提議結果: 否
有爭議
已提議結果: 是
有爭議
最終結果: 否
US and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding on June 15, 2026, to halt hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, waive certain oil sanctions during talks, and launch 60 days of nuclear negotiations. The framework, mediated in part by Pakistan, sets a signing date of June 19 in Switzerland, with both sides confirming agreed wording. Media outlets obtained and published draft and full text details shortly afterward, including a 14-point structure covering ceasefire terms, sanctions relief pathways, and economic incentives tied to compliance. President Trump indicated public release would follow the ceremony, while administration briefings have already disclosed core elements. These developments have aligned trader consensus with rapid disclosure, as verified primary reporting and official statements confirm the text is now available ahead of the formal signing.
On June 18, 2026, multiple major news organizations published the full text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, confirming the text's wide public availability. This led to the market price reaching 100% for the June 17 and June 30 outcomes, indicating consensus that the text was released.
Jun 17 2026
US officially releases full 14-point memorandum of understanding text
June 17 surges to 98%39%
The United States government officially released the full text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran, including provisions on ceasefire, sanctions relief, and nuclear commitments. This official release confirmed the authenticity of the text and caused the market price to surge to near 100%.
Jun 17 2026
US releases full 14-point agreement text with Iran
June 17 surges to 100%64%
On June 17, 2026, the United States officially released the full text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran, detailing ceasefire terms, sanctions relief, and nuclear commitments. This public release confirmed the text's availability, causing a sharp rise in market prices for the June 17 and June 30 outcomes.
Jun 17 2026
Iran publishes official 14-point agreement text
June 17 surges to 100%64%
Iran's government published its copy of the 14-point framework deal on June 17, 2026, matching the US release and confirming the text's authenticity. This reinforced market confidence that the agreement text was widely available, supporting the price surge.
Jun 17 2026
Senior US official reads full text of US-Iran memorandum to reporters
June 17 surges to 100%64%
A senior US administration official publicly read the full 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17, 2026, providing detailed provisions and timelines. This official disclosure further confirmed the text's public availability, solidifying market certainty.
Jun 17 2026
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly shares full US-Iran deal text
June 17 rises to 100%3%
On June 17, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian published the full text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on his official social media account, confirming the authenticity and public availability of the agreement text. This official release further solidified market confidence, pushing prices for June 17 and June 30 outcomes to 100%.
Jun 17 2026
US officials publicly release full text of US-Iran memorandum of understanding
June 17 rises to 100%3%
On June 17, US officials publicly read out and released the full text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran, confirming the details of the agreement including ceasefire terms, sanctions relief, and nuclear negotiation framework. This official disclosure confirmed the public availability of the agreement text, supporting the market's resolution to 'Yes' for June 17 and June 30.
Jun 17 2026
US releases official 14-point agreement text with Iran
The United States officially released the 14-point memorandum of understanding text, detailing the terms of the ceasefire, sanctions relief, and nuclear negotiations. This official release, alongside Iran's publication, confirmed the text's wide public availability and led to the market price reaching 100% for the June 17 and June 30 outcomes.
Jun 17 2026
US officially releases full text of 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran
June 17 surges to 100%41%
On June 17, the United States government officially released the full text of the memorandum of understanding with Iran, detailing ceasefire terms, sanctions relief, and nuclear commitments. This official release confirmed the text's wide availability to the public, causing the market prices for the June 17 and June 30 outcomes to reach 100%.
Jun 17 2026
Iran publishes its copy of the 14-point US-Iran framework deal
June 17 surges to 100%41%
On June 17, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian published Tehran's copy of the 14-point framework deal, matching the US release and confirming the text's authenticity and public availability. This further solidified market confidence in the text's release.
Jun 17 2026
Bloomberg reports Iran to resume oil exports under interim US deal
June 17 surges to 55%23%
On June 17, Bloomberg reported that Iran would be allowed to immediately start oil exports under the interim deal with the US, citing a draft of the agreement. This report included verbatim text excerpts, confirming public access to the agreement's wording.
Jun 17 2026
Insurance Journal publishes full 14-point draft memorandum of understanding text
June 17 surges to 55%23%
Insurance Journal published the full text of the 14-point draft MoU on June 17, including detailed provisions about lifting the naval blockade and restoring shipping traffic, confirming the agreement text was widely available to the public.
Jun 17 2026
CNN Obtains and Publishes Full Text of US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding
June 17 surges to 83%40%
CNN published the full 14-point text of the memorandum of understanding obtained from a US official, confirming the exact wording of the agreement and causing a final surge in the June 17 and June 19 markets.
Jun 17 2026
US administration publicly releases full text of 14-point US-Iran agreement
June 17 surges to 100%70%
On June 17, 2026, the US government officially released the full text of the memorandum of understanding with Iran, detailing the ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear program provisions. This public disclosure met the market's resolution criteria, causing prices for June 17 and June 30 outcomes to surge to 100%.
Jun 17 2026
US administration officially releases full 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding text
June 17 surges to 100%68%
On June 17, 2026, a senior US administration official publicly read out and provided the full text of the 14-point memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. This official release included detailed provisions on ceasefire, sanctions relief, nuclear commitments, and economic plans, fulfilling the market's criteria for public availability of the agreement text and causing a sharp rise in market prices for June 17 and June 30 outcomes.
Jun 17 2026
Multiple major news outlets publish full text of US-Iran agreement
June 17 surges to 100%45%
On June 17, major news organizations including CNN, The New York Times, Time, Euronews, and NBC News published the full text of the US-Iran 14-point agreement, confirming its wide public availability. This broad media dissemination solidified market confidence that the agreement text was publicly released by June 17.
Jun 17 2026
Senior US officials publicly read and release official 14-point US-Iran agreement text
June 17 surges to 100%17%
On June 17, senior US administration officials publicly read the full 14-point memorandum of understanding text and released the official document, confirming the details of the agreement. Iran's president also published the document on social media, confirming the text's authenticity. This official release and confirmation caused the market to reach 100% certainty that the text was publicly available before the deadline.
Jun 16 2026
Leaked full text of US-Iran memorandum of understanding published by analysts and media
June 16 surges to 39%23%
On June 16, foreign policy analyst Josh Block and Saudi media published the full 14-point draft text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, detailing clauses on sanctions relief, oil exports, and further negotiations. Western media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal and Axios corroborated these details, confirming the authenticity of the text and boosting market confidence in the public release of the agreement text.
Jun 16 2026
Al Arabiya Publishes Leaked Text of US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding
June 16 surges to 59%46%
Saudi state-owned media outlet Al Arabiya obtained and published the full 14-point draft text of the US-Iran agreement, detailing sanctions relief, a $300 billion development fund, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 16 2026
Leaked 14-point draft memorandum of understanding between US and Iran published
June 16 surges to 43%27%
On June 16, foreign policy analyst Josh Block and Saudi media published an identical version of the US-Iran MoU text, detailing all 14 clauses of the agreement to be signed on June 19. Western media outlets corroborated the authenticity of this leaked text, confirming public availability of the agreement's wording.
Jun 16 2026
Leaked and published full text of US-Iran memorandum of understanding
June 17 surges to 70%47%
On June 16, multiple sources including foreign policy analysts and Saudi media published the leaked full text of the 14-point US-Iran memorandum of understanding, detailing ceasefire extension, sanctions relief, and regional security measures. This public release of the text caused a significant jump in market prices for the June 17 and June 30 outcomes, confirming the availability of the agreement text to the public.
Jun 16 2026
Western Media Outlets Corroborate Leaked US-Iran Agreement Clauses
June 17 surges to 70%41%
Major Western news organizations, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Axios, confirmed the authenticity of the leaked 14-point agreement, driving up the probability of the June 17 outcome.
Jun 16 2026
Bloomberg publishes detailed 14-point draft memorandum of understanding
June 16 surges to 43%27%
Bloomberg News published the full 14-point draft MoU text on June 16, providing the most complete public accounting of the economic and diplomatic terms of the US-Iran agreement, confirming the text's wide availability to the public.
Jun 16 2026
Bloomberg publishes 14-point draft memorandum text between US and Iran
June 17 surges to 64%28%
On June 16, 2026, Bloomberg published the 14-point draft memorandum of understanding text between the US and Iran, providing the public with verbatim portions of the agreement text, which increased market confidence in a "Yes" resolution for text release by June 17 and beyond.
Jun 16 2026
US Vice President JD Vance confirms expectation of text release before signing
June 17 surges to 64%28%
On June 16, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance stated in interviews that the administration expected a full spectrum of representatives at the signing and indicated the finalized text was ready, signaling imminent public release and boosting market prices for near-term text availability.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions
"美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "6月17日" at 100%, followed by "6月19日" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？" has generated $6.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？" is "6月17日" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6月19日" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $6.7 million traded on “美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "6月17日" in the "美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "6月17日" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.
The "美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？" market has an active community of 304 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "美國和伊朗的交易文本由...發布？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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