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icon for 美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？
政治·巴西

美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？

icon for 美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？
政治·巴西

美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？

是

3% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

3% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions between the United States and Brazil center on reciprocal visa actions and stalled ambassador approvals rather than formal expulsions. The Trump administration revoked Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa in early August as retaliation for Brazil delaying agrément for nominee Daniel Perez and denying entry to U.S. officials ahead of October elections, yet State Department statements explicitly distinguish this from expulsion and note the measure can be reversed quickly upon resolution. Earlier reciprocal steps included the April expulsion of a Brazilian federal police attaché and ongoing holds on law enforcement visas tied to transnational crime cooperation. With only weeks remaining before September 30 and no announced plans for additional expulsions, traders see limited near-term risk of a new diplomatic expulsion occurring. A sudden breakdown in ongoing talks or an unforeseen incident could still shift the outlook.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,058
結束日期
2026-10-01
市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions between the United States and Brazil center on reciprocal visa actions and stalled ambassador approvals rather than formal expulsions. The Trump administration revoked Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa in early August as retaliation for Brazil delaying agrément for nominee Daniel Perez and denying entry to U.S. officials ahead of October elections, yet State Department statements explicitly distinguish this from expulsion and note the measure can be reversed quickly upon resolution. Earlier reciprocal steps included the April expulsion of a Brazilian federal police attaché and ongoing holds on law enforcement visas tied to transnational crime cooperation. With only weeks remaining before September 30 and no announced plans for additional expulsions, traders see limited near-term risk of a new diplomatic expulsion occurring. A sudden breakdown in ongoing talks or an unforeseen incident could still shift the outlook.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,058
結束日期
2026-10-01
市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國是否會在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 3¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 3% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" is "美國是否會在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" at just 3%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國在9月30日前驅逐一名巴西外交官？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.