President Trump's July 13, 2026, announcement that the United States would assume guardianship of the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% reimbursement fee on cargo value for security costs triggered immediate market attention amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Within 24 hours, he reversed course following diplomatic pushback from Gulf states, citing instead new trade and investment commitments, while legal experts and the International Maritime Organization highlighted prohibitions under international law against mandatory tolls in international straits. Low implied probabilities on Polymarket reflect this rapid policy shift, absence of subsequent implementation steps, and ongoing multilateral negotiations that have prioritized alternative arrangements over direct fees. Any future action would likely require legislative or executive follow-through before year-end deadlines, with trader sentiment also tracking broader developments in regional shipping security and energy route stability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$962,375 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
1%
12月31日
7%
$962,375 交易量
8月31日
$176,364 交易量
1%
12月31日
$98,858 交易量
7%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's July 13, 2026, announcement that the United States would assume guardianship of the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% reimbursement fee on cargo value for security costs triggered immediate market attention amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Within 24 hours, he reversed course following diplomatic pushback from Gulf states, citing instead new trade and investment commitments, while legal experts and the International Maritime Organization highlighted prohibitions under international law against mandatory tolls in international straits. Low implied probabilities on Polymarket reflect this rapid policy shift, absence of subsequent implementation steps, and ongoing multilateral negotiations that have prioritized alternative arrangements over direct fees. Any future action would likely require legislative or executive follow-through before year-end deadlines, with trader sentiment also tracking broader developments in regional shipping security and energy route stability.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
交易量
$962,375結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's July 13, 2026, announcement that the United States would assume guardianship of the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% reimbursement fee on cargo value for security costs triggered immediate market attention amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Within 24 hours, he reversed course following diplomatic pushback from Gulf states, citing instead new trade and investment commitments, while legal experts and the International Maritime Organization highlighted prohibitions under international law against mandatory tolls in international straits. Low implied probabilities on Polymarket reflect this rapid policy shift, absence of subsequent implementation steps, and ongoing multilateral negotiations that have prioritized alternative arrangements over direct fees. Any future action would likely require legislative or executive follow-through before year-end deadlines, with trader sentiment also tracking broader developments in regional shipping security and energy route stability.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$962,375結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's July 13, 2026, announcement that the United States would assume guardianship of the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% reimbursement fee on cargo value for security costs triggered immediate market attention amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Within 24 hours, he reversed course following diplomatic pushback from Gulf states, citing instead new trade and investment commitments, while legal experts and the International Maritime Organization highlighted prohibitions under international law against mandatory tolls in international straits. Low implied probabilities on Polymarket reflect this rapid policy shift, absence of subsequent implementation steps, and ongoing multilateral negotiations that have prioritized alternative arrangements over direct fees. Any future action would likely require legislative or executive follow-through before year-end deadlines, with trader sentiment also tracking broader developments in regional shipping security and energy route stability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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