**US policy barriers and explicit rejection of Taliban overtures explain the strong trader consensus favoring "No" on a signed Trump-Taliban mineral deal by year-end.** The de facto Afghan government proposed US investment in Afghanistan’s estimated $1 trillion mineral resources—including lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earths—in late August 2026, seeking sanctions relief and asset releases in exchange. The State Department quickly ruled out cooperation, citing the Taliban’s terrorist designation, sanctions regime, and human rights concerns. The administration has instead advanced critical minerals partnerships with recognized partners such as Armenia, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Australia. No bilateral agreement or formal instrument has emerged, and non-recognition plus procedural hurdles make a signed deal improbable before December 31.