Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 97.7% market-implied probability against any firing attempt through year-end. Public White House statements continue to express confidence in the appointee while directing criticism at the broader FOMC board over rate decisions, including the September hike that defied preferences for lower borrowing costs. Warsh's hawkish stance on inflation and emphasis on price stability have not prompted formal removal threats, consistent with the low historical base rate of presidents ousting sitting Fed chairs. Tail risks remain limited to scenarios such as sustained policy clashes amid persistent inflation or pre-midterm pressures that could escalate beyond current rhetoric, though institutional norms and Warsh's recent installation make a formal directive improbable.