The high 89.5% market-implied probability of "No" for the U.S. Space Academy commencing training by June 30, 2027, stems primarily from the multi-year requirements for congressional authorization, funding, site selection, and facility development before any formal academic instruction can begin. An August 28, 2026 executive order established a NASA-led Presidential Commission with a 120-day mandate to deliver recommendations, followed by a recent Request for Information on potential host states due October 26, 2026. Official plans target groundbreaking no later than 2027 and initial students in temporary facilities only in 2028. These steps align with standard federal academy timelines and historical precedents for new institutions, leaving insufficient runway for actual instruction within the resolution window despite ongoing commission work.