President Trump's recent suggestion to rename the Strait of Hormuz the "Trump Strait" amid U.S.-Iran tensions has not translated into formal executive action or institutional adoption by the U.S. Board on Geographic Names. International law and the waterway's shared sovereignty with Iran and Oman constrain any unilateral U.S. name change, unlike prior domestic or claimed renames such as the Gulf of America. The president later described the idea as merely "thrown out there," signaling limited follow-through. Traders assign 95.5% probability to "No" by December 31 because structural barriers and the short timeline outweigh rhetorical signals. Late developments such as an official directive to federal agencies or a diplomatic agreement could still shift the outcome before year-end.