Recent flagship releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash have intensified competition on arena.ai’s Text Arena math leaderboard, where lab rankings reflect aggregated Elo scores from human preference votes on mathematical reasoning tasks. Trader sentiment shows tight clustering around 50% for multiple contenders because Chinese labs including Z.ai (GLM series) and Alibaba (Qwen) continue releasing open-weight models optimized for benchmarks, while Google and OpenAI vie for mid-tier positions behind likely Anthropic leaders. Key swing factors include any additional model updates or fine-tunes before October 31 that could alter third-place positioning amid converging capabilities across frontier large language models.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 38%
Z.ai 31.6%
OpenAI 21%
阿里巴巴 10%
$35,284 交易量
$35,284 交易量
2026-10-31
38%
Z.ai
32%
OpenAI
21%
阿里巴巴
10%
美團
2%
Moonshot
2%
Nvidia
2%
Anthropic
1%
百度
1%
Meta
1%
小米
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
騰訊
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
StepFun
<1%
微軟
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Google 38%
Z.ai 31.6%
OpenAI 21%
阿里巴巴 10%
$35,284 交易量
$35,284 交易量
2026-10-31
$10,299 交易量
38%
Z.ai
$1,660 交易量
32%
OpenAI
$3,260 交易量
21%
阿里巴巴
$10,269 交易量
10%
美團
$1,369 交易量
2%
Moonshot
$715 交易量
2%
Nvidia
$1,013 交易量
2%
Anthropic
$538 交易量
1%
百度
$563 交易量
1%
Meta
$497 交易量
1%
小米
$535 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$518 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$479 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$540 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$516 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$422 交易量
<1%
微軟
$395 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$550 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$582 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$564 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent flagship releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash have intensified competition on arena.ai’s Text Arena math leaderboard, where lab rankings reflect aggregated Elo scores from human preference votes on mathematical reasoning tasks. Trader sentiment shows tight clustering around 50% for multiple contenders because Chinese labs including Z.ai (GLM series) and Alibaba (Qwen) continue releasing open-weight models optimized for benchmarks, while Google and OpenAI vie for mid-tier positions behind likely Anthropic leaders. Key swing factors include any additional model updates or fine-tunes before October 31 that could alter third-place positioning amid converging capabilities across frontier large language models.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
交易量
$35,284結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent flagship releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash have intensified competition on arena.ai’s Text Arena math leaderboard, where lab rankings reflect aggregated Elo scores from human preference votes on mathematical reasoning tasks. Trader sentiment shows tight clustering around 50% for multiple contenders because Chinese labs including Z.ai (GLM series) and Alibaba (Qwen) continue releasing open-weight models optimized for benchmarks, while Google and OpenAI vie for mid-tier positions behind likely Anthropic leaders. Key swing factors include any additional model updates or fine-tunes before October 31 that could alter third-place positioning amid converging capabilities across frontier large language models.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$35,284結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETRecent flagship releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash have intensified competition on arena.ai’s Text Arena math leaderboard, where lab rankings reflect aggregated Elo scores from human preference votes on mathematical reasoning tasks. Trader sentiment shows tight clustering around 50% for multiple contenders because Chinese labs including Z.ai (GLM series) and Alibaba (Qwen) continue releasing open-weight models optimized for benchmarks, while Google and OpenAI vie for mid-tier positions behind likely Anthropic leaders. Key swing factors include any additional model updates or fine-tunes before October 31 that could alter third-place positioning amid converging capabilities across frontier large language models.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions