Recent model releases have tightened the race for third place among frontier AI labs behind Anthropic and OpenAI. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, both launched in early September 2026, delivered competitive gains in coding, agentic tasks, and cost efficiency, supporting their market-implied leads at 23.5% and 19.5%. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and SpaceXAI’s incremental Grok updates keep pressure on the middle tier, while Chinese labs such as Moonshot and Z.ai offer lower-cost alternatives that influence perceptions of value. The fragmented odds reflect ongoing benchmark convergence and differing strategies around open weights versus restricted access, with resolution by end of October likely hinging on additional flagship shipments and independent index updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Google 20%
Tencent 18.2%
Meta 18%
OpenAI 15.9%
$21,078 交易量
$21,078 交易量
2026-10-31
20%
Tencent
18%
Meta
18%
OpenAI
16%
Alibaba
14%
Moonshot
5%
Anthropic
4%
Mistral
3%
Z.ai
2%
ByteDance
2%
MiniMax
2%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
22%
Baidu
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
1%
Amazon
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Google 20%
Tencent 18.2%
Meta 18%
OpenAI 15.9%
$21,078 交易量
$21,078 交易量
2026-10-31
$6,362 交易量
20%
Tencent
$506 交易量
18%
Meta
$1,080 交易量
18%
OpenAI
$2,716 交易量
16%
Alibaba
$4,056 交易量
14%
Moonshot
$509 交易量
5%
Anthropic
$311 交易量
4%
Mistral
$506 交易量
3%
Z.ai
$359 交易量
2%
ByteDance
$468 交易量
2%
MiniMax
$543 交易量
2%
Xiaomi
$487 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$455 交易量
22%
Baidu
$333 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$330 交易量
1%
Nvidia
$353 交易量
1%
Microsoft
$354 交易量
1%
StepFun
$347 交易量
1%
Amazon
$316 交易量
1%
Thinky
$309 交易量
1%
Meituan
$373 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have tightened the race for third place among frontier AI labs behind Anthropic and OpenAI. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, both launched in early September 2026, delivered competitive gains in coding, agentic tasks, and cost efficiency, supporting their market-implied leads at 23.5% and 19.5%. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and SpaceXAI’s incremental Grok updates keep pressure on the middle tier, while Chinese labs such as Moonshot and Z.ai offer lower-cost alternatives that influence perceptions of value. The fragmented odds reflect ongoing benchmark convergence and differing strategies around open weights versus restricted access, with resolution by end of October likely hinging on additional flagship shipments and independent index updates.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
交易量
$21,078結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have tightened the race for third place among frontier AI labs behind Anthropic and OpenAI. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, both launched in early September 2026, delivered competitive gains in coding, agentic tasks, and cost efficiency, supporting their market-implied leads at 23.5% and 19.5%. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and SpaceXAI’s incremental Grok updates keep pressure on the middle tier, while Chinese labs such as Moonshot and Z.ai offer lower-cost alternatives that influence perceptions of value. The fragmented odds reflect ongoing benchmark convergence and differing strategies around open weights versus restricted access, with resolution by end of October likely hinging on additional flagship shipments and independent index updates.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$21,078結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETRecent model releases have tightened the race for third place among frontier AI labs behind Anthropic and OpenAI. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, both launched in early September 2026, delivered competitive gains in coding, agentic tasks, and cost efficiency, supporting their market-implied leads at 23.5% and 19.5%. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and SpaceXAI’s incremental Grok updates keep pressure on the middle tier, while Chinese labs such as Moonshot and Z.ai offer lower-cost alternatives that influence perceptions of value. The fragmented odds reflect ongoing benchmark convergence and differing strategies around open weights versus restricted access, with resolution by end of October likely hinging on additional flagship shipments and independent index updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions