The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense uncertainty in ranking the third-best agent developer by late October, driven by rapid iteration in reasoning, tool-use, and multi-step planning capabilities across frontier models. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated agentic performance in benchmarks for autonomous workflows, API integrations, and real-world deployment, with labs like Moonshot and established players differentiating through specialized architectures versus broad scaling. Traders weigh official releases, safety evaluations, and ecosystem partnerships against the risk of timeline slips or capability plateaus, as the short window to resolution amplifies sensitivity to any credible progress reports or competitive benchmarks in the coming weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Moonshot 50%
SpaceXAI 10.6%
阿里巴巴 10%
OpenAI 9%
$16,172 交易量
$16,172 交易量
2026-10-31
Moonshot
50%
SpaceXAI
10%
阿里巴巴
10%
OpenAI
9%
Z.ai
8%
7%
Anthropic
6%
小米
5%
DeepSeek
4%
微軟
4%
字節跳動
1%
Meta
1%
MiniMax
1%
英偉達
1%
百度
1%
亞馬遜
1%
Mistral
1%
美團
1%
Moonshot 50%
SpaceXAI 10.6%
阿里巴巴 10%
OpenAI 9%
$16,172 交易量
$16,172 交易量
2026-10-31
Moonshot
$6,063 交易量
50%
SpaceXAI
$612 交易量
10%
阿里巴巴
$530 交易量
10%
OpenAI
$4,377 交易量
9%
Z.ai
$442 交易量
8%
$295 交易量
7%
Anthropic
$1,017 交易量
6%
小米
$262 交易量
5%
DeepSeek
$337 交易量
4%
微軟
$252 交易量
4%
字節跳動
$473 交易量
1%
Meta
$229 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$224 交易量
1%
英偉達
$184 交易量
1%
百度
$224 交易量
1%
亞馬遜
$201 交易量
1%
Mistral
$229 交易量
1%
美團
$224 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense uncertainty in ranking the third-best agent developer by late October, driven by rapid iteration in reasoning, tool-use, and multi-step planning capabilities across frontier models. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated agentic performance in benchmarks for autonomous workflows, API integrations, and real-world deployment, with labs like Moonshot and established players differentiating through specialized architectures versus broad scaling. Traders weigh official releases, safety evaluations, and ecosystem partnerships against the risk of timeline slips or capability plateaus, as the short window to resolution amplifies sensitivity to any credible progress reports or competitive benchmarks in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
交易量
$16,172結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense uncertainty in ranking the third-best agent developer by late October, driven by rapid iteration in reasoning, tool-use, and multi-step planning capabilities across frontier models. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated agentic performance in benchmarks for autonomous workflows, API integrations, and real-world deployment, with labs like Moonshot and established players differentiating through specialized architectures versus broad scaling. Traders weigh official releases, safety evaluations, and ecosystem partnerships against the risk of timeline slips or capability plateaus, as the short window to resolution amplifies sensitivity to any credible progress reports or competitive benchmarks in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$16,172結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETThe closely matched probabilities around 50% for numerous AI labs reflect intense uncertainty in ranking the third-best agent developer by late October, driven by rapid iteration in reasoning, tool-use, and multi-step planning capabilities across frontier models. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated agentic performance in benchmarks for autonomous workflows, API integrations, and real-world deployment, with labs like Moonshot and established players differentiating through specialized architectures versus broad scaling. Traders weigh official releases, safety evaluations, and ecosystem partnerships against the risk of timeline slips or capability plateaus, as the short window to resolution amplifies sensitivity to any credible progress reports or competitive benchmarks in the coming weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions