Persistent low commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued well after the April 8 US-Iran ceasefire, with daily transits averaging just six to seven vessels against a normal range of 125 to 140. Ongoing US-led mine-clearance operations, estimated to require up to six months, combined with unresolved deadlock over reopening terms and lingering routing uncertainty, have kept shipping companies cautious. These factors have locked in trader consensus that normal volumes would not resume by May 15. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or accelerated demining could still shift conditions before full market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$17,940,559 交易量
$17,940,559 交易量
2026-05-15
$17,940,559 交易量
$17,940,559 交易量
2026-05-15
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent low commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued well after the April 8 US-Iran ceasefire, with daily transits averaging just six to seven vessels against a normal range of 125 to 140. Ongoing US-led mine-clearance operations, estimated to require up to six months, combined with unresolved deadlock over reopening terms and lingering routing uncertainty, have kept shipping companies cautious. These factors have locked in trader consensus that normal volumes would not resume by May 15. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or accelerated demining could still shift conditions before full market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
交易量
$17,940,559結束日期
2026-05-15市場開放時間
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent low commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued well after the April 8 US-Iran ceasefire, with daily transits averaging just six to seven vessels against a normal range of 125 to 140. Ongoing US-led mine-clearance operations, estimated to require up to six months, combined with unresolved deadlock over reopening terms and lingering routing uncertainty, have kept shipping companies cautious. These factors have locked in trader consensus that normal volumes would not resume by May 15. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or accelerated demining could still shift conditions before full market resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$17,940,559結束日期
2026-05-15市場開放時間
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Persistent low commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued well after the April 8 US-Iran ceasefire, with daily transits averaging just six to seven vessels against a normal range of 125 to 140. Ongoing US-led mine-clearance operations, estimated to require up to six months, combined with unresolved deadlock over reopening terms and lingering routing uncertainty, have kept shipping companies cautious. These factors have locked in trader consensus that normal volumes would not resume by May 15. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or accelerated demining could still shift conditions before full market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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