Traders see a tight race for second place in code and web development AI capabilities by end of October, with Alibaba at 24% implied probability narrowly ahead of Anthropic at 22.9% and Moonshot at 20.5%. This reflects ongoing competition among large language models where recent releases have narrowed gaps in coding benchmarks, agentic web tools, and developer ecosystem integration. OpenAI trails at 17% while Meta, Google, and others sit lower, underscoring how factors like demonstrated performance on complex programming tasks, API stability, and enterprise adoption continue to shift sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include new model updates or capability demonstrations that could alter the current market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於阿里巴巴 24%
Anthropic 22.9%
Moonshot 21%
OpenAI 18%
$13,929 交易量
$13,929 交易量
2026-10-31
阿里巴巴
24%
Anthropic
23%
Moonshot
21%
OpenAI
18%
Meta
8%
SpaceXAI
7%
谷歌
5%
DeepSeek
5%
Z.ai
4%
Poolside
2%
騰訊
1%
字節跳動
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
小米
<1%
阿里巴巴 24%
Anthropic 22.9%
Moonshot 21%
OpenAI 18%
$13,929 交易量
$13,929 交易量
2026-10-31
阿里巴巴
$1,277 交易量
24%
Anthropic
$1,717 交易量
23%
Moonshot
$4,607 交易量
21%
OpenAI
$582 交易量
18%
Meta
$545 交易量
8%
SpaceXAI
$415 交易量
7%
谷歌
$495 交易量
5%
DeepSeek
$461 交易量
5%
Z.ai
$469 交易量
4%
Poolside
$801 交易量
2%
騰訊
$409 交易量
1%
字節跳動
$486 交易量
1%
Thinky
$488 交易量
1%
Mistral
$625 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$321 交易量
<1%
小米
$231 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight race for second place in code and web development AI capabilities by end of October, with Alibaba at 24% implied probability narrowly ahead of Anthropic at 22.9% and Moonshot at 20.5%. This reflects ongoing competition among large language models where recent releases have narrowed gaps in coding benchmarks, agentic web tools, and developer ecosystem integration. OpenAI trails at 17% while Meta, Google, and others sit lower, underscoring how factors like demonstrated performance on complex programming tasks, API stability, and enterprise adoption continue to shift sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include new model updates or capability demonstrations that could alter the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
交易量
$13,929結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight race for second place in code and web development AI capabilities by end of October, with Alibaba at 24% implied probability narrowly ahead of Anthropic at 22.9% and Moonshot at 20.5%. This reflects ongoing competition among large language models where recent releases have narrowed gaps in coding benchmarks, agentic web tools, and developer ecosystem integration. OpenAI trails at 17% while Meta, Google, and others sit lower, underscoring how factors like demonstrated performance on complex programming tasks, API stability, and enterprise adoption continue to shift sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include new model updates or capability demonstrations that could alter the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$13,929結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETTraders see a tight race for second place in code and web development AI capabilities by end of October, with Alibaba at 24% implied probability narrowly ahead of Anthropic at 22.9% and Moonshot at 20.5%. This reflects ongoing competition among large language models where recent releases have narrowed gaps in coding benchmarks, agentic web tools, and developer ecosystem integration. OpenAI trails at 17% while Meta, Google, and others sit lower, underscoring how factors like demonstrated performance on complex programming tasks, API stability, and enterprise adoption continue to shift sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include new model updates or capability demonstrations that could alter the current market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions