OpenAI’s recent product cadence and benchmark dominance are anchoring trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of October. The September 10 public beta of its Agents API, combined with GPT-6 Astra’s strong results on Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, and BrowseComp, has reinforced leadership in tool-use, multi-step reasoning, and developer ecosystem reach. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos variants trail at 12.5%, reflecting solid but narrower gains in agentic evals despite safety-focused releases. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and other Chinese labs sit lower, limited by verification gaps in frontier agent workflows. With resolution approaching, fresh model drops or third-party arena updates could still shift sentiment before October closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於OpenAI 80%
Anthropic 13%
Moonshot 4.3%
SpaceXAI 2.8%
$35,402 交易量
$35,402 交易量
2026-10-31
OpenAI
80%
Anthropic
13%
Moonshot
4%
SpaceXAI
3%
谷歌
3%
美团
1%
亞馬遜
1%
MiniMax
1%
百度
1%
Z.ai
1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
小米
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
微軟
<1%
OpenAI 80%
Anthropic 13%
Moonshot 4.3%
SpaceXAI 2.8%
$35,402 交易量
$35,402 交易量
2026-10-31
OpenAI
$13,850 交易量
80%
Anthropic
$4,493 交易量
13%
Moonshot
$7,725 交易量
4%
SpaceXAI
$705 交易量
3%
谷歌
$1,527 交易量
3%
美团
$518 交易量
1%
亞馬遜
$599 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$626 交易量
1%
百度
$591 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$555 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$548 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$638 交易量
<1%
Meta
$516 交易量
<1%
小米
$473 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$553 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$558 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$526 交易量
<1%
微軟
$400 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent product cadence and benchmark dominance are anchoring trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of October. The September 10 public beta of its Agents API, combined with GPT-6 Astra’s strong results on Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, and BrowseComp, has reinforced leadership in tool-use, multi-step reasoning, and developer ecosystem reach. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos variants trail at 12.5%, reflecting solid but narrower gains in agentic evals despite safety-focused releases. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and other Chinese labs sit lower, limited by verification gaps in frontier agent workflows. With resolution approaching, fresh model drops or third-party arena updates could still shift sentiment before October closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
交易量
$35,402結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent product cadence and benchmark dominance are anchoring trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of October. The September 10 public beta of its Agents API, combined with GPT-6 Astra’s strong results on Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, and BrowseComp, has reinforced leadership in tool-use, multi-step reasoning, and developer ecosystem reach. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos variants trail at 12.5%, reflecting solid but narrower gains in agentic evals despite safety-focused releases. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and other Chinese labs sit lower, limited by verification gaps in frontier agent workflows. With resolution approaching, fresh model drops or third-party arena updates could still shift sentiment before October closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$35,402結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETOpenAI’s recent product cadence and benchmark dominance are anchoring trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of October. The September 10 public beta of its Agents API, combined with GPT-6 Astra’s strong results on Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, and BrowseComp, has reinforced leadership in tool-use, multi-step reasoning, and developer ecosystem reach. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Mythos variants trail at 12.5%, reflecting solid but narrower gains in agentic evals despite safety-focused releases. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and other Chinese labs sit lower, limited by verification gaps in frontier agent workflows. With resolution approaching, fresh model drops or third-party arena updates could still shift sentiment before October closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions