Elevated near-term inflation pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored trader expectations for further RBNZ tightening. After the July 8 hike lifted the OCR to 2.50 percent—the first increase in three years—markets now price an 87.5 percent implied probability of another 25 basis point rise at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. Headline CPI is forecast to peak near 4.3 percent in the September quarter before easing toward the 2 percent target midpoint by mid-2027, while core measures and wage growth remain contained. Recent data releases and OIS pricing reflect this hawkish path, with traders discounting a no-change outcome at just 12.5 percent amid ongoing uncertainty over domestic demand and spare capacity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於提高 88%
維持不變 13%
下調 <1%
$21,508 交易量
$21,508 交易量
2026-09-02
提高
88%
維持不變
13%
下調
<1%
提高 88%
維持不變 13%
下調 <1%
$21,508 交易量
$21,508 交易量
2026-09-02
提高
$7,187 交易量
88%
維持不變
$12,369 交易量
13%
下調
$1,952 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated near-term inflation pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored trader expectations for further RBNZ tightening. After the July 8 hike lifted the OCR to 2.50 percent—the first increase in three years—markets now price an 87.5 percent implied probability of another 25 basis point rise at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. Headline CPI is forecast to peak near 4.3 percent in the September quarter before easing toward the 2 percent target midpoint by mid-2027, while core measures and wage growth remain contained. Recent data releases and OIS pricing reflect this hawkish path, with traders discounting a no-change outcome at just 12.5 percent amid ongoing uncertainty over domestic demand and spare capacity.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
交易量
$21,508結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated near-term inflation pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored trader expectations for further RBNZ tightening. After the July 8 hike lifted the OCR to 2.50 percent—the first increase in three years—markets now price an 87.5 percent implied probability of another 25 basis point rise at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. Headline CPI is forecast to peak near 4.3 percent in the September quarter before easing toward the 2 percent target midpoint by mid-2027, while core measures and wage growth remain contained. Recent data releases and OIS pricing reflect this hawkish path, with traders discounting a no-change outcome at just 12.5 percent amid ongoing uncertainty over domestic demand and spare capacity.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$21,508結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated near-term inflation pressures from the Middle East energy shock have anchored trader expectations for further RBNZ tightening. After the July 8 hike lifted the OCR to 2.50 percent—the first increase in three years—markets now price an 87.5 percent implied probability of another 25 basis point rise at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. Headline CPI is forecast to peak near 4.3 percent in the September quarter before easing toward the 2 percent target midpoint by mid-2027, while core measures and wage growth remain contained. Recent data releases and OIS pricing reflect this hawkish path, with traders discounting a no-change outcome at just 12.5 percent amid ongoing uncertainty over domestic demand and spare capacity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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