Recent hawkish minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting, which highlighted materializing upside risks to inflation from global energy costs amid Middle East tensions and firmer domestic demand, have anchored trader sentiment around the November 3 decision. With the cash rate at 4.60% following the prior 25 basis point hike, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 76.5%, reflecting expectations that incoming data will not yet justify further tightening despite headline CPI at 4.0% and trimmed mean at 3.6% in August. A 25 basis point increase carries 24.5% implied probability as analysts at ANZ and Westpac flag it as more likely than not, while the September-quarter inflation release on October 28 and labor data remain key swing factors that could shift the policy path versus the RBA’s 2–3% target.