The Odyssey and The Black Ball lead the early market at 28.5% and 27.5% implied probability, respectively, reflecting their high-profile source material—Homer’s epic and a acclaimed Spanish-language property—paired with Christopher Nolan’s proven awards momentum and strong festival positioning for La Bola Negra. The Invite sits at 18.5% on the strength of Olivia Wilde’s direction and ensemble buzz, while Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three trail amid competition from other literary adaptations. With releases clustered in fall 2026, trader sentiment hinges on critical reception, WGA guild signals, and precursor results that typically clarify frontrunners ahead of nominations. Historical patterns favor ambitious studio adaptations with director cachet, though late reviews or underperformance can quickly shift the field.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
The Odyssey 28%
The Black Ball 28%
The Invite 16%
Project Hail Mary 6.7%
$20,075 交易量
$20,075 交易量
2027-03-14
The Odyssey
28%
The Black Ball
28%
The Invite
16%
Project Hail Mary
7%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
6%
Ink
6%
Dune: Part Three
6%
Wildwood
5%
The Social Reckoning
5%
Clarissa
2%
Cry to Heaven
1%
Saturn Return
1%
All of a Sudden
1%
Toy Story 5
1%
The Whisper Man
1%
The Odyssey 28%
The Black Ball 28%
The Invite 16%
Project Hail Mary 6.7%
$20,075 交易量
$20,075 交易量
2027-03-14
The Odyssey
$1,901 交易量
28%
The Black Ball
$9,933 交易量
28%
The Invite
$4,047 交易量
16%
Project Hail Mary
$449 交易量
7%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$246 交易量
6%
Ink
$829 交易量
6%
Dune: Part Three
$393 交易量
6%
Wildwood
$512 交易量
5%
The Social Reckoning
$232 交易量
5%
Clarissa
$162 交易量
2%
Cry to Heaven
$201 交易量
1%
Saturn Return
$185 交易量
1%
All of a Sudden
$475 交易量
1%
Toy Story 5
$323 交易量
1%
The Whisper Man
$187 交易量
1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Odyssey and The Black Ball lead the early market at 28.5% and 27.5% implied probability, respectively, reflecting their high-profile source material—Homer’s epic and a acclaimed Spanish-language property—paired with Christopher Nolan’s proven awards momentum and strong festival positioning for La Bola Negra. The Invite sits at 18.5% on the strength of Olivia Wilde’s direction and ensemble buzz, while Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three trail amid competition from other literary adaptations. With releases clustered in fall 2026, trader sentiment hinges on critical reception, WGA guild signals, and precursor results that typically clarify frontrunners ahead of nominations. Historical patterns favor ambitious studio adaptations with director cachet, though late reviews or underperformance can quickly shift the field.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
交易量
$20,075結束日期
2027-03-14市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETThe Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Odyssey and The Black Ball lead the early market at 28.5% and 27.5% implied probability, respectively, reflecting their high-profile source material—Homer’s epic and a acclaimed Spanish-language property—paired with Christopher Nolan’s proven awards momentum and strong festival positioning for La Bola Negra. The Invite sits at 18.5% on the strength of Olivia Wilde’s direction and ensemble buzz, while Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three trail amid competition from other literary adaptations. With releases clustered in fall 2026, trader sentiment hinges on critical reception, WGA guild signals, and precursor results that typically clarify frontrunners ahead of nominations. Historical patterns favor ambitious studio adaptations with director cachet, though late reviews or underperformance can quickly shift the field.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$20,075結束日期
2027-03-14市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETThe Odyssey and The Black Ball lead the early market at 28.5% and 27.5% implied probability, respectively, reflecting their high-profile source material—Homer’s epic and a acclaimed Spanish-language property—paired with Christopher Nolan’s proven awards momentum and strong festival positioning for La Bola Negra. The Invite sits at 18.5% on the strength of Olivia Wilde’s direction and ensemble buzz, while Project Hail Mary and Dune: Part Three trail amid competition from other literary adaptations. With releases clustered in fall 2026, trader sentiment hinges on critical reception, WGA guild signals, and precursor results that typically clarify frontrunners ahead of nominations. Historical patterns favor ambitious studio adaptations with director cachet, though late reviews or underperformance can quickly shift the field.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions