Google's recent focus on rapid Gemini Flash iterations, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash and its Cyber variant, has reinforced trader expectations that the next frontier Pro model remains delayed. Persistent internal tuning for complex reasoning, agentic workflows, and competitive benchmarks—following multiple 2026 slips for 3.5 Pro—has produced no confirmed September announcements or partner testing signals. Historical release patterns favor quarterly or later cycles for Pro updates, with Google prioritizing cheaper, faster Flash variants amid rival advancements from OpenAI and Anthropic. This dynamic underpins the 83% market-implied probability of no Pro launch by September 30, though any credible late-month teaser could still shift near-term odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於於9月30日之前不發布 83%
9 月 30 日 4.0%
9 月 23 日 3.8%
9 月 24 日 3.6%
$93,386 交易量
$93,386 交易量
2026-09-14
9 月 14 日
<1%
9 月 15 日
2%
9 月 16 日
2%
9 月 17 日
2%
9 月 18 日
<1%
9 月 19 日
1%
9 月 20 日
1%
9月21日
2%
9 月 22 日
3%
9 月 23 日
4%
9 月 24 日
4%
9 月 25 日
1%
9 月 26 日
1%
9 月 27 日
1%
9 月 28 日
3%
9 月 29 日
2%
9 月 30 日
4%
於9月30日之前不發布
83%
於9月30日之前不發布 83%
9 月 30 日 4.0%
9 月 23 日 3.8%
9 月 24 日 3.6%
$93,386 交易量
$93,386 交易量
2026-09-14
9 月 14 日
$409 交易量
<1%
9 月 15 日
$547 交易量
2%
9 月 16 日
$543 交易量
2%
9 月 17 日
$547 交易量
2%
9 月 18 日
$310 交易量
<1%
9 月 19 日
$307 交易量
1%
9 月 20 日
$307 交易量
1%
9月21日
$537 交易量
2%
9 月 22 日
$584 交易量
3%
9 月 23 日
$464 交易量
4%
9 月 24 日
$594 交易量
4%
9 月 25 日
$303 交易量
1%
9 月 26 日
$305 交易量
1%
9 月 27 日
$307 交易量
1%
9 月 28 日
$485 交易量
3%
9 月 29 日
$375 交易量
2%
9 月 30 日
$840 交易量
4%
於9月30日之前不發布
$78,635 交易量
83%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's recent focus on rapid Gemini Flash iterations, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash and its Cyber variant, has reinforced trader expectations that the next frontier Pro model remains delayed. Persistent internal tuning for complex reasoning, agentic workflows, and competitive benchmarks—following multiple 2026 slips for 3.5 Pro—has produced no confirmed September announcements or partner testing signals. Historical release patterns favor quarterly or later cycles for Pro updates, with Google prioritizing cheaper, faster Flash variants amid rival advancements from OpenAI and Anthropic. This dynamic underpins the 83% market-implied probability of no Pro launch by September 30, though any credible late-month teaser could still shift near-term odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$93,386結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's recent focus on rapid Gemini Flash iterations, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash and its Cyber variant, has reinforced trader expectations that the next frontier Pro model remains delayed. Persistent internal tuning for complex reasoning, agentic workflows, and competitive benchmarks—following multiple 2026 slips for 3.5 Pro—has produced no confirmed September announcements or partner testing signals. Historical release patterns favor quarterly or later cycles for Pro updates, with Google prioritizing cheaper, faster Flash variants amid rival advancements from OpenAI and Anthropic. This dynamic underpins the 83% market-implied probability of no Pro launch by September 30, though any credible late-month teaser could still shift near-term odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$93,386結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETGoogle's recent focus on rapid Gemini Flash iterations, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash and its Cyber variant, has reinforced trader expectations that the next frontier Pro model remains delayed. Persistent internal tuning for complex reasoning, agentic workflows, and competitive benchmarks—following multiple 2026 slips for 3.5 Pro—has produced no confirmed September announcements or partner testing signals. Historical release patterns favor quarterly or later cycles for Pro updates, with Google prioritizing cheaper, faster Flash variants amid rival advancements from OpenAI and Anthropic. This dynamic underpins the 83% market-implied probability of no Pro launch by September 30, though any credible late-month teaser could still shift near-term odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions