Anthropic's June 30, 2026 release of Claude Sonnet 5, positioned as its most agentic mid-tier model with near-Opus performance in coding, tool use, and 1M-token context at lower cost, sets the baseline for the next Sonnet iteration. Traders track the company's accelerated 2026 cadence—major updates roughly every 4–8 weeks, including Opus 5 on July 24 and the August 10 confirmation of permanent $2/$10 per million token pricing for Sonnet 5—as evidence that Sonnet 6 could arrive before year-end or in early 2027. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model launches, combined with deprecation timelines protecting Sonnet 5 until at least June 2027, shapes expectations around development velocity versus typical quarterly refinement cycles. Key near-term catalysts include any developer conference updates or API leaks that could shift implied probabilities on release windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-08-31
8月31日
12%
10月31日
75%
12 月 31 日
91%
$3,734 交易量
8月31日
$562 交易量
12%
10月31日
$237 交易量
75%
12 月 31 日
$2,935 交易量
91%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's June 30, 2026 release of Claude Sonnet 5, positioned as its most agentic mid-tier model with near-Opus performance in coding, tool use, and 1M-token context at lower cost, sets the baseline for the next Sonnet iteration. Traders track the company's accelerated 2026 cadence—major updates roughly every 4–8 weeks, including Opus 5 on July 24 and the August 10 confirmation of permanent $2/$10 per million token pricing for Sonnet 5—as evidence that Sonnet 6 could arrive before year-end or in early 2027. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model launches, combined with deprecation timelines protecting Sonnet 5 until at least June 2027, shapes expectations around development velocity versus typical quarterly refinement cycles. Key near-term catalysts include any developer conference updates or API leaks that could shift implied probabilities on release windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 1, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$3,734結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's June 30, 2026 release of Claude Sonnet 5, positioned as its most agentic mid-tier model with near-Opus performance in coding, tool use, and 1M-token context at lower cost, sets the baseline for the next Sonnet iteration. Traders track the company's accelerated 2026 cadence—major updates roughly every 4–8 weeks, including Opus 5 on July 24 and the August 10 confirmation of permanent $2/$10 per million token pricing for Sonnet 5—as evidence that Sonnet 6 could arrive before year-end or in early 2027. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model launches, combined with deprecation timelines protecting Sonnet 5 until at least June 2027, shapes expectations around development velocity versus typical quarterly refinement cycles. Key near-term catalysts include any developer conference updates or API leaks that could shift implied probabilities on release windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,734結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's June 30, 2026 release of Claude Sonnet 5, positioned as its most agentic mid-tier model with near-Opus performance in coding, tool use, and 1M-token context at lower cost, sets the baseline for the next Sonnet iteration. Traders track the company's accelerated 2026 cadence—major updates roughly every 4–8 weeks, including Opus 5 on July 24 and the August 10 confirmation of permanent $2/$10 per million token pricing for Sonnet 5—as evidence that Sonnet 6 could arrive before year-end or in early 2027. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model launches, combined with deprecation timelines protecting Sonnet 5 until at least June 2027, shapes expectations around development velocity versus typical quarterly refinement cycles. Key near-term catalysts include any developer conference updates or API leaks that could shift implied probabilities on release windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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