Mitch McConnell’s return to the Senate floor on September 14 after a three-month absence has anchored trader confidence in a “Yes” outcome for this market. The Kentucky Republican, who is serving the final months of his term ending in January 2027, cast recorded votes on a judicial nomination and participated in committee action on the farm bill shortly after resuming duties, with additional floor activity expected before the September 30 government-funding deadline. Senate leadership has scheduled multiple procedural and legislative matters during the current session, and McConnell has publicly committed to attending for key votes while continuing physical therapy. With the chamber operating under narrow margins and his participation already verified in recent days, traders view further recorded votes by the resolution date as highly probable. Late health setbacks remain the primary variable that could alter participation, though none have materialized since his return.