The SPD secured 35.5% of the vote in the September 20, 2026, Landtag election, well above the 31% threshold and aligning with final-week polling that showed recovery into the mid-30s. Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s personal standing, high turnout at 78.1%, and targeted mobilization among traditional supporters helped limit losses to roughly four points from the 2021 result despite the AfD’s advance to 38.2%. Late surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Infratest dimap consistently placed the SPD in a range that made sub-31% outcomes improbable, reflecting the party’s entrenched position in the state. No material recount or certification issues have emerged that would alter this outcome.