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May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Market icon

May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)

<1.03 100.0%

1.03-1.09 100.0%

1.10-1.16 100.0%

1.17-1.23 100.0%

Polymarket

$556,252 交易量

<1.03 100.0%

1.03-1.09 100.0%

1.10-1.16 100.0%

1.17-1.23 100.0%

Polymarket

$556,252 交易量

Market icon

<1.03

$128,471 交易量

No

Market icon

1.03-1.09

$142,042 交易量

No

Market icon

1.10-1.16

$67,421 交易量

Yes

Market icon

1.17-1.23

$51,230 交易量

No

Market icon

1.24-1.30

$77,493 交易量

No

Market icon

>1.30

$89,596 交易量

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase of less than 1.03°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of less than 1.03°C for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase of between 1.03°C (inclusive) and 1.09°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.03°C (inclusive) and 1.09°C (inclusive) for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase of between 1.10°C (inclusive) and 1.16°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.10°C (inclusive) and 1.16°C (inclusive) for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase of between 1.17°C (inclusive) and 1.23°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.17°C (inclusive) and 1.23°C (inclusive) for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase of between 1.24°C (inclusive) and 1.30°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.24°C (inclusive) and 1.30°C (inclusive) for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase greater than 1.30°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly greater than 1.30°C for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase of less than 1.03°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of less than 1.03°C for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase of between 1.03°C (inclusive) and 1.09°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.03°C (inclusive) and 1.09°C (inclusive) for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase of between 1.10°C (inclusive) and 1.16°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.10°C (inclusive) and 1.16°C (inclusive) for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase of between 1.17°C (inclusive) and 1.23°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.17°C (inclusive) and 1.23°C (inclusive) for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase of between 1.24°C (inclusive) and 1.30°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.24°C (inclusive) and 1.30°C (inclusive) for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2024 shows an increase greater than 1.30°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly greater than 1.30°C for May 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for May 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2024 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.10-1.16" at 100%, followed by "<1.03" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)" has generated $556.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 10, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)" is "1.10-1.16" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<1.03" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "May 2024 Temperature Increase (ºC)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.