Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Khamenei # posts 2026年7月14日至7月21日？
Khamenei # posts 2026年7月14日至7月21日？
5-9 100.0%
<5 <1%
10-14 <1%
15-19 <1%
$20,312 交易量
$20,312 交易量
2026-07-21
<5
No
5-9
Yes
10-14
No
15-19
No
20-24
No
25-29
No
30-34
No
35-39
No
40-44
No
45-49
No
50-54
No
55-59
No
60+
No
5-9 100.0%
<5 <1%
10-14 <1%
15-19 <1%
$20,312 交易量
$20,312 交易量
2026-07-21
<5
$5,915 交易量
No
5-9
$3,401 交易量
Yes
10-14
$1,869 交易量
No
15-19
$1,355 交易量
No
20-24
$921 交易量
No
25-29
$1,215 交易量
No
30-34
$1,971 交易量
No
35-39
$691 交易量
No
40-44
$373 交易量
No
45-49
$762 交易量
No
50-54
$687 交易量
No
55-59
$710 交易量
No
60+
$442 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： Jul 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
交易量
$20,312結束日期
2026-07-21市場開放時間
Jul 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$20,312結束日期
2026-07-21市場開放時間
Jul 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions