This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on extending the fragile April 2026 ceasefire, originally brokered by Pakistan for two weeks and later prolonged amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, naval blockades, and limits on Iran's nuclear and missile programs. As of late May 2026, officials from both sides reported progress toward a memorandum of understanding or 60-day extension, following rejections of earlier proposals and intermittent violations including strikes near the Strait in early May. Negotiations involve mediators and address related regional tensions, such as in Lebanon, while both parties continue military preparations and reconstitution of capabilities. Upcoming talks and any formal announcements on reopening shipping lanes or broader terms will influence whether the truce holds beyond immediate deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on extending the fragile April 2026 ceasefire, originally brokered by Pakistan for two weeks and later prolonged amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, naval blockades, and limits on Iran's nuclear and missile programs. As of late May 2026, officials from both sides reported progress toward a memorandum of understanding or 60-day extension, following rejections of earlier proposals and intermittent violations including strikes near the Strait in early May. Negotiations involve mediators and address related regional tensions, such as in Lebanon, while both parties continue military preparations and reconstitution of capabilities. Upcoming talks and any formal announcements on reopening shipping lanes or broader terms will influence whether the truce holds beyond immediate deadlines.
Iranian negotiators emphasize no compromise on national rights amid ceasefire talks
May 24 surges to 97%27%
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with Pakistan’s Army Chief on May 23, stating Iran would not compromise on its national rights and that its armed forces had rebuilt capabilities during the ceasefire. This firm stance indicated ongoing tensions but did not derail ceasefire talks, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire holding.
May 23 2026
US, Iran, Pakistan near deal to extend ceasefire by 60 days with nuclear framework
May 23 surges to 97%27%
Financial Times reported that mediators were nearing a deal to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days and establish nuclear talks, boosting market confidence in the ceasefire's continuation.
May 23 2026
Trump signals ceasefire extension by 60 days with nuclear talks to follow
May 23 surges to 98%28%
President Trump indicated that negotiations were in the final stages of extending the ceasefire by 60 days, with a framework for broader negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. This significant diplomatic progress boosted market confidence.
May 23 2026
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations
May 23 surges to 100%30%
President Trump stated on May 23 that the US was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, boosting market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 23 and beyond. This announcement helped push the market price to 100% Yes for May 23.
May 23 2026
US Secretary of State Rubio expresses cautious optimism on Iran ceasefire talks
May 24 surges to 98%28%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed cautious optimism about progress in negotiations with Iran, reinforcing market confidence that the ceasefire would hold through May 24 and later dates.
May 23 2026
Reports indicate ceasefire extension between US and Iran likely by 60 days
May 25 surges to 97%44%
Mediators were reportedly close to securing an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, with a framework for broader nuclear negotiations, further supporting market prices for the ceasefire continuing through May 25 and beyond.
May 23 2026
US and Iran in final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations, Trump says deal imminent
May 23 surges to 100%30%
On May 23, President Trump announced that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, signaling a high likelihood of continuation. This statement boosted market confidence, reflected in the sharp price increases for ceasefire continuation through May 23 and beyond.
May 23 2026
Mediators close to securing 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension with nuclear talks framework
May 24 surges to 97%27%
Reports on May 23 indicated that mediators, including Pakistan, were close to securing an agreement to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days and establish a framework for broader nuclear negotiations. This development increased market optimism for the ceasefire holding through later dates such as May 24 and May 25.
May 23 2026
Trump claims Iran ceasefire deal largely negotiated with Strait of Hormuz reopening
May 24 surges to 97%27%
On May 23, President Trump stated that the ceasefire deal with Iran was largely negotiated and would be announced shortly, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls during the ceasefire extension. This positive diplomatic signal contributed to the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire's continuation.
May 22 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 24 surges to 90%20%
The US military struck two Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after exchanges of fire, raising doubts about the ceasefire. However, no official confirmation of US kinetic military action on Iranian soil was reported, so the market remained confident the ceasefire would hold through May 24.
May 22 2026
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations with Iran
May 23 surges to 100%30%
President Trump stated that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, increasing market optimism for the ceasefire continuing through May 23 and beyond.
May 22 2026
Pakistani Army Chief visits Tehran to expedite US-Iran ceasefire talks
May 22 surges to 100%18%
On May 22, Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran to accelerate negotiations between the US and Iran, signaling active diplomatic engagement to maintain the ceasefire. This visit contributed to increased market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 22, reflected in the price rising from 82% to 100%.
May 21 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 22 jumps to 95%13%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue efforts to reignite ceasefire negotiations with the US, while President Trump suggested talks could occur by phone. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 21 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 22 rises to 94%4%
President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, injecting some uncertainty into the negotiations but not indicating a breakdown of the ceasefire, which kept market confidence high for May 22 and beyond.
May 21 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 99%5%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, escalating tensions but not constituting a kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not officially ending the ceasefire. This event caused some market volatility but confidence remained high.
May 20 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 90%8%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, raising tensions but not causing a confirmed kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not breaking the ceasefire. This event introduced some uncertainty but did not derail ceasefire expectations.
May 20 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue ceasefire negotiations with the US, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement that supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire extension with the US, signaling ongoing negotiations despite earlier confusion. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid renewed ceasefire talks
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, signaling ongoing negotiations and raising market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 21 and May 22.
May 20 2026
Pakistan intensifies mediation efforts between US and Iran amid ceasefire
May 22 jumps to 92%13%
Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi traveled to Tehran for talks with Iranian officials to continue mediation efforts, signaling active diplomatic engagement to maintain the ceasefire. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 20 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange more US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move increased market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 21.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on extending the fragile April 2026 ceasefire, originally brokered by Pakistan for two weeks and later prolonged amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, naval blockades, and limits on Iran's nuclear and missile programs. As of late May 2026, officials from both sides reported progress toward a memorandum of understanding or 60-day extension, following rejections of earlier proposals and intermittent violations including strikes near the Strait in early May. Negotiations involve mediators and address related regional tensions, such as in Lebanon, while both parties continue military preparations and reconstitution of capabilities. Upcoming talks and any formal announcements on reopening shipping lanes or broader terms will influence whether the truce holds beyond immediate deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on extending the fragile April 2026 ceasefire, originally brokered by Pakistan for two weeks and later prolonged amid disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, naval blockades, and limits on Iran's nuclear and missile programs. As of late May 2026, officials from both sides reported progress toward a memorandum of understanding or 60-day extension, following rejections of earlier proposals and intermittent violations including strikes near the Strait in early May. Negotiations involve mediators and address related regional tensions, such as in Lebanon, while both parties continue military preparations and reconstitution of capabilities. Upcoming talks and any formal announcements on reopening shipping lanes or broader terms will influence whether the truce holds beyond immediate deadlines.
Iranian negotiators emphasize no compromise on national rights amid ceasefire talks
May 24 surges to 97%27%
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with Pakistan’s Army Chief on May 23, stating Iran would not compromise on its national rights and that its armed forces had rebuilt capabilities during the ceasefire. This firm stance indicated ongoing tensions but did not derail ceasefire talks, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire holding.
May 23 2026
US, Iran, Pakistan near deal to extend ceasefire by 60 days with nuclear framework
May 23 surges to 97%27%
Financial Times reported that mediators were nearing a deal to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days and establish nuclear talks, boosting market confidence in the ceasefire's continuation.
May 23 2026
Trump signals ceasefire extension by 60 days with nuclear talks to follow
May 23 surges to 98%28%
President Trump indicated that negotiations were in the final stages of extending the ceasefire by 60 days, with a framework for broader negotiations on Iran's nuclear program. This significant diplomatic progress boosted market confidence.
May 23 2026
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations
May 23 surges to 100%30%
President Trump stated on May 23 that the US was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, boosting market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 23 and beyond. This announcement helped push the market price to 100% Yes for May 23.
May 23 2026
US Secretary of State Rubio expresses cautious optimism on Iran ceasefire talks
May 24 surges to 98%28%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed cautious optimism about progress in negotiations with Iran, reinforcing market confidence that the ceasefire would hold through May 24 and later dates.
May 23 2026
Reports indicate ceasefire extension between US and Iran likely by 60 days
May 25 surges to 97%44%
Mediators were reportedly close to securing an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, with a framework for broader nuclear negotiations, further supporting market prices for the ceasefire continuing through May 25 and beyond.
May 23 2026
US and Iran in final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations, Trump says deal imminent
May 23 surges to 100%30%
On May 23, President Trump announced that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, signaling a high likelihood of continuation. This statement boosted market confidence, reflected in the sharp price increases for ceasefire continuation through May 23 and beyond.
May 23 2026
Mediators close to securing 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension with nuclear talks framework
May 24 surges to 97%27%
Reports on May 23 indicated that mediators, including Pakistan, were close to securing an agreement to extend the US-Iran ceasefire by 60 days and establish a framework for broader nuclear negotiations. This development increased market optimism for the ceasefire holding through later dates such as May 24 and May 25.
May 23 2026
Trump claims Iran ceasefire deal largely negotiated with Strait of Hormuz reopening
May 24 surges to 97%27%
On May 23, President Trump stated that the ceasefire deal with Iran was largely negotiated and would be announced shortly, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls during the ceasefire extension. This positive diplomatic signal contributed to the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire's continuation.
May 22 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 24 surges to 90%20%
The US military struck two Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after exchanges of fire, raising doubts about the ceasefire. However, no official confirmation of US kinetic military action on Iranian soil was reported, so the market remained confident the ceasefire would hold through May 24.
May 22 2026
US President Trump announces final stages of ceasefire extension negotiations with Iran
May 23 surges to 100%30%
President Trump stated that the United States was in the final stages of negotiations to extend the ceasefire with Iran, increasing market optimism for the ceasefire continuing through May 23 and beyond.
May 22 2026
Pakistani Army Chief visits Tehran to expedite US-Iran ceasefire talks
May 22 surges to 100%18%
On May 22, Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir arrived in Tehran to accelerate negotiations between the US and Iran, signaling active diplomatic engagement to maintain the ceasefire. This visit contributed to increased market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 22, reflected in the price rising from 82% to 100%.
May 21 2026
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire talks
May 22 jumps to 95%13%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue efforts to reignite ceasefire negotiations with the US, while President Trump suggested talks could occur by phone. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 21 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 22 rises to 94%4%
President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, injecting some uncertainty into the negotiations but not indicating a breakdown of the ceasefire, which kept market confidence high for May 22 and beyond.
May 21 2026
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 99%5%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, escalating tensions but not constituting a kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not officially ending the ceasefire. This event caused some market volatility but confidence remained high.
May 20 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 22 jumps to 90%8%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, raising tensions but not causing a confirmed kinetic strike on Iranian soil, thus not breaking the ceasefire. This event introduced some uncertainty but did not derail ceasefire expectations.
May 20 2026
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue ceasefire negotiations with the US, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement that supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid ceasefire talks
May 20 rises to 100%3%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire extension with the US, signaling ongoing negotiations despite earlier confusion. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 20.
May 20 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid renewed ceasefire talks
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad to continue diplomatic efforts to extend the US-Iran ceasefire, signaling ongoing negotiations and raising market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 21 and May 22.
May 20 2026
Pakistan intensifies mediation efforts between US and Iran amid ceasefire
May 22 jumps to 92%13%
Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi traveled to Tehran for talks with Iranian officials to continue mediation efforts, signaling active diplomatic engagement to maintain the ceasefire. This bolstered market confidence in the ceasefire holding through May 22.
May 20 2026
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange more US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
May 21 jumps to 97%8%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move increased market confidence that the ceasefire would continue through May 21.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions
"伊朗停火持續到... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 23" at 100%, followed by "5月20日" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "伊朗停火持續到... ？" has generated $22.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "伊朗停火持續到... ？," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "伊朗停火持續到... ？" is "May 23" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5月20日" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "伊朗停火持續到... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "伊朗停火持續到... ？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $22.1 million traded on “伊朗停火持續到... ？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "伊朗停火持續到... ？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "May 23" in the "伊朗停火持續到... ？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "May 23" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
This market will resolve when the event's official outcome is determined. Check the "Rules" section on this page for the specific resolution criteria and timing.
The "伊朗停火持續到... ？" market has an active community of 208 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "伊朗停火持續到... ？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions