Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment constitutes a sovereign right has anchored trader expectations against any near-term agreement to halt the activity entirely by September 30. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly identified continued domestic enrichment as a non-negotiable red line in bilateral talks with the United States throughout 2025 and 2026, rejecting U.S. proposals for a multi-year moratorium or zero-enrichment commitments. Multiple rounds of negotiations, including indirect sessions in Oman and technical discussions following the Islamabad Memorandum, have produced limited progress on stockpile issues but no movement on ending enrichment itself. With the September deadline approaching and no verified shift in Tehran's stance or new diplomatic breakthroughs reported in recent weeks, market pricing reflects the entrenched divergence between the parties' core demands.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
6% 機率
$59,363 交易量
$59,363 交易量
2026-09-30
是
6% 機率
$59,363 交易量
$59,363 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment constitutes a sovereign right has anchored trader expectations against any near-term agreement to halt the activity entirely by September 30. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly identified continued domestic enrichment as a non-negotiable red line in bilateral talks with the United States throughout 2025 and 2026, rejecting U.S. proposals for a multi-year moratorium or zero-enrichment commitments. Multiple rounds of negotiations, including indirect sessions in Oman and technical discussions following the Islamabad Memorandum, have produced limited progress on stockpile issues but no movement on ending enrichment itself. With the September deadline approaching and no verified shift in Tehran's stance or new diplomatic breakthroughs reported in recent weeks, market pricing reflects the entrenched divergence between the parties' core demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
交易量
$59,363結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment constitutes a sovereign right has anchored trader expectations against any near-term agreement to halt the activity entirely by September 30. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly identified continued domestic enrichment as a non-negotiable red line in bilateral talks with the United States throughout 2025 and 2026, rejecting U.S. proposals for a multi-year moratorium or zero-enrichment commitments. Multiple rounds of negotiations, including indirect sessions in Oman and technical discussions following the Islamabad Memorandum, have produced limited progress on stockpile issues but no movement on ending enrichment itself. With the September deadline approaching and no verified shift in Tehran's stance or new diplomatic breakthroughs reported in recent weeks, market pricing reflects the entrenched divergence between the parties' core demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$59,363結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment constitutes a sovereign right has anchored trader expectations against any near-term agreement to halt the activity entirely by September 30. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have repeatedly identified continued domestic enrichment as a non-negotiable red line in bilateral talks with the United States throughout 2025 and 2026, rejecting U.S. proposals for a multi-year moratorium or zero-enrichment commitments. Multiple rounds of negotiations, including indirect sessions in Oman and technical discussions following the Islamabad Memorandum, have produced limited progress on stockpile issues but no movement on ending enrichment itself. With the September deadline approaching and no verified shift in Tehran's stance or new diplomatic breakthroughs reported in recent weeks, market pricing reflects the entrenched divergence between the parties' core demands.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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