Howard Lutnick has served as Commerce Secretary since his February 2025 Senate confirmation on a 51-45 vote, maintaining an active role in tariff policy, trade negotiations with partners including India and Canada, and department oversight into October 2026. Recent financial disclosures and public appearances show continued engagement without signs of internal friction or presidential dissatisfaction. With only weeks remaining until the October 31 resolution date and no announced resignation, confirmation issues, or major scandals, trader consensus assigns just a 4.5% implied probability of departure. Shifts could still occur from an unforeseen health event, abrupt White House directive, or rapidly escalating congressional pressure tied to prior Epstein-related inquiries.