Recent US-Iran diplomatic developments, including a June 14-15 memorandum of understanding to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, have triggered the first modest increase in transits after months of near-total disruption since late February. Pre-conflict baselines averaged roughly 100 vessels daily, but attacks, Iranian threats, and mine risks reduced traffic to single digits or low teens per day through early June. As of mid-June, only a handful of vessels—primarily tankers—have begun crossing under heightened security, with daily counts reported between 4 and 14 amid demining operations and insurance concerns. Over 500 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, and analysts project a gradual ramp-up rather than immediate normalization, supporting trader consensus around lower weekly totals for the June 15-21 window while leaving room for upside if security assurances strengthen faster than expected.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於75-99 100.0%
<25 <1%
25-49 <1%
50-74 <1%
$97,881 交易量
$97,881 交易量
2026-06-21
<25
No
25-49
否
50-74
No
75-99
Yes
100+
否
75-99 100.0%
<25 <1%
25-49 <1%
50-74 <1%
$97,881 交易量
$97,881 交易量
2026-06-21
<25
$30,590 交易量
No
25-49
$16,874 交易量
否
50-74
$10,283 交易量
No
75-99
$16,572 交易量
Yes
100+
$23,562 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent US-Iran diplomatic developments, including a June 14-15 memorandum of understanding to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, have triggered the first modest increase in transits after months of near-total disruption since late February. Pre-conflict baselines averaged roughly 100 vessels daily, but attacks, Iranian threats, and mine risks reduced traffic to single digits or low teens per day through early June. As of mid-June, only a handful of vessels—primarily tankers—have begun crossing under heightened security, with daily counts reported between 4 and 14 amid demining operations and insurance concerns. Over 500 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, and analysts project a gradual ramp-up rather than immediate normalization, supporting trader consensus around lower weekly totals for the June 15-21 window while leaving room for upside if security assurances strengthen faster than expected.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$97,881結束日期
2026-06-21市場開放時間
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent US-Iran diplomatic developments, including a June 14-15 memorandum of understanding to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, have triggered the first modest increase in transits after months of near-total disruption since late February. Pre-conflict baselines averaged roughly 100 vessels daily, but attacks, Iranian threats, and mine risks reduced traffic to single digits or low teens per day through early June. As of mid-June, only a handful of vessels—primarily tankers—have begun crossing under heightened security, with daily counts reported between 4 and 14 amid demining operations and insurance concerns. Over 500 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, and analysts project a gradual ramp-up rather than immediate normalization, supporting trader consensus around lower weekly totals for the June 15-21 window while leaving room for upside if security assurances strengthen faster than expected.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 15, 2026, through June 21, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$97,881結束日期
2026-06-21市場開放時間
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Recent US-Iran diplomatic developments, including a June 14-15 memorandum of understanding to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, have triggered the first modest increase in transits after months of near-total disruption since late February. Pre-conflict baselines averaged roughly 100 vessels daily, but attacks, Iranian threats, and mine risks reduced traffic to single digits or low teens per day through early June. As of mid-June, only a handful of vessels—primarily tankers—have begun crossing under heightened security, with daily counts reported between 4 and 14 amid demining operations and insurance concerns. Over 500 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, and analysts project a gradual ramp-up rather than immediate normalization, supporting trader consensus around lower weekly totals for the June 15-21 window while leaving room for upside if security assurances strengthen faster than expected.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions