Trader consensus on Polymarket places overwhelming implied probability (99.5%) on 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of August 3, reflecting the waterway’s established baseline traffic volumes amid stable regional conditions. Primary drivers include steady crude oil export flows from Gulf producers, supported by prevailing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that have shown no sharp spikes from geopolitical premiums. Macro factors such as balanced global energy demand, contained OPEC+ supply adjustments, and absence of fresh escalations involving Iran or Houthi activity have reinforced expectations of routine daily passages near historical averages. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden military incidents, new sanctions tightening export capacity, or abrupt changes in tanker routing that reduce throughput below 25 vessels.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於25-49 99.5%
50-74 <1%
少於25艘 <1%
75-99 <1%
$77,118 交易量
$77,118 交易量
2026-08-09
少於25艘
否
25-49
是
50-74
否
75-99
否
100+
否
25-49 99.5%
50-74 <1%
少於25艘 <1%
75-99 <1%
$77,118 交易量
$77,118 交易量
2026-08-09
少於25艘
$23,197 交易量
否
25-49
$14,974 交易量
是
50-74
$11,203 交易量
否
75-99
$8,852 交易量
否
100+
$18,892 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket places overwhelming implied probability (99.5%) on 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of August 3, reflecting the waterway’s established baseline traffic volumes amid stable regional conditions. Primary drivers include steady crude oil export flows from Gulf producers, supported by prevailing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that have shown no sharp spikes from geopolitical premiums. Macro factors such as balanced global energy demand, contained OPEC+ supply adjustments, and absence of fresh escalations involving Iran or Houthi activity have reinforced expectations of routine daily passages near historical averages. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden military incidents, new sanctions tightening export capacity, or abrupt changes in tanker routing that reduce throughput below 25 vessels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
交易量
$77,118結束日期
2026-08-09市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket places overwhelming implied probability (99.5%) on 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of August 3, reflecting the waterway’s established baseline traffic volumes amid stable regional conditions. Primary drivers include steady crude oil export flows from Gulf producers, supported by prevailing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that have shown no sharp spikes from geopolitical premiums. Macro factors such as balanced global energy demand, contained OPEC+ supply adjustments, and absence of fresh escalations involving Iran or Houthi activity have reinforced expectations of routine daily passages near historical averages. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden military incidents, new sanctions tightening export capacity, or abrupt changes in tanker routing that reduce throughput below 25 vessels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$77,118結束日期
2026-08-09市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket places overwhelming implied probability (99.5%) on 25-49 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of August 3, reflecting the waterway’s established baseline traffic volumes amid stable regional conditions. Primary drivers include steady crude oil export flows from Gulf producers, supported by prevailing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that have shown no sharp spikes from geopolitical premiums. Macro factors such as balanced global energy demand, contained OPEC+ supply adjustments, and absence of fresh escalations involving Iran or Houthi activity have reinforced expectations of routine daily passages near historical averages. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include sudden military incidents, new sanctions tightening export capacity, or abrupt changes in tanker routing that reduce throughput below 25 vessels.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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